It wasn’t a typo.
The Indiana Pacers really had just one offensive rebound during their home loss against the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs on Jan. 2.
One. Offensive. Rebound.
Astute Pacer observers might have been appalled, but they probably weren’t surprised. A drastic drop in second-chance points has been a culprit in Indiana’s recent losing streak, which is now at 12 losses in a row following a loss at Orlando on Jan. 4.
The numbers inside
Second-chance scoring was basically a wash for the first two months of the Pacers’ season. Indiana averaged 14.2 second-chance points per game and gave up 14.5 through its first 25 games.
However, since the start of the long losing streak, the Pacers have been at a massive disadvantage in second-chance scoring. Indiana’s second-chance points dipped to 10.0 per game in the 12 losses. The second-chance scoring for Pacer opponents jumped to 17.1 points per game. That’s a nightly disadvantage of 7.1 points per game on the offensive glass. Second-chance points weren't necessarily a Pacer strength during the successful 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, but a differential of 7.1 points is too much.
Four of those 12 losses would have been wins if Indiana had been just break-even in second-chance scoring.
The warning signs
Some overly optimistic Pacer fans probably thought the team was turning the corner after back-to-back wins against the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings in early December. At that point, Indiana had won four of six and was getting key players back from injuries.
In retrospect, those two games were a warning sign of troubles to come.
Indiana got outrebounded by 11 and outscored by 11 second-chance points at Chicago on Dec. 5. The Pacers got away with it thanks to one of their best shooting performances of the season.
The Pacers then got outrebounded by 10 and outscored by 7 second-chance points against Sacramento on Dec. 8. The Pacers got away with it thanks to a big advantage in 3-pointers and free throws made.
Indiana hasn’t won a game since, and the issues on the offensive glass haven’t gone away.
Isaiah Jackson is missed
It’s now clear the Pacers miss Isaiah Jackson, who has been out due to the effects of a concussion since the Dec. 22 loss in Boston, more than they perhaps expected. Jackson is one of Indiana’s leaders in second-chance scoring. The most precipitous decrease in second-chance scoring coincided with Jackson’s absence.
Name a key Pacer player, and his second-chance scoring has been down in the last month. Pascal Siakam is doing everything he can to keep the Pacers afloat, but his second-chance scoring has slipped in recent weeks. Indiana is glad to have Aaron Nesmith back from injury, but he has been a non-factor in second-chance scoring since his return. Bennedict Mathurin historically gets his second-chance points in bursts, but those bursts have been fewer and further between in recent weeks.
If you’re wondering …
It could be worse. NBA teams have finished games with zero offensive rebounds. The last time it happened was Feb. 10, 2024, when the Los Angeles Clippers went a full 48 minutes without an offensive rebound against the Detroit Pistons.
Actually … maybe that’s the solution.
The Clippers won that game. In fact, four of the last five teams to finish a full contest with zero offensive rebounds managed to win those games!