It was always expected that the Indiana Pacers would miss Tyrese Haliburton this season as he recovers from an Achilles injury. And so far, that's been completely true.
The Pacers began the season with a 1-13 record and rank among the worst teams in the NBA on both sides of the ball. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Indiana's 105.5 offensive rating is the second-worst in the league, and its 119.5 defensive rating is the sixth-worst. The Pacers are also missing shots at an alarming rate.
Probably 95% of Indiana's struggles stem from Haliburton's absence. Everyone calls him the team's offensive engine for a reason. He is an elite playmaker and facilitator who pushes the tempo and makes quick decisions. Given how important ball movement and pace are in Indiana's offense, that makes him the perfect point guard for the team. So, not having him on the floor makes life much more difficult for everybody else on the roster.
Beyond that, though, Haliburton is also a fantastic scorer and a shooting threat of his own. In his first three full seasons with the Pacers, the Iowa State alum averaged 19.7 PPG while shooting 47.9% from the field and 38.3% from deep.
The Pacers certainly miss Haliburton's ability to run the offense and make the magic happen for the rest of the team. However, they are also greatly missing his scoring abilities as his absence has forced Indiana to lose a big dynamic of what makes their offense special.
The Pacers are struggling offensively far more than anyone expected
On the surface, not having Haliburton on the floor is bad news for the Pacers for multiple reasons.
In addition to the team losing elite playmaking (which Rick Carlisle has already confirmed is making things difficult for Indiana) and another fantastic three-point shooter, the Wisconsin native's absence also forced the rest of the team to pick up the slack. This could either be done by other players stepping up as a playmaker, potentially losing a bit of what makes them special and valuable, or by being forced to create their own shots. And since so much of Indiana's offense revolves around Haliburton, this is not an easy adjustment to make.
But there is another, more specific problem the Pacers are facing without Haliburton: their pick-and-roll offense has taken a major hit.
Having Nembhard as their primary ball-handler instead of Haliburton makes this area of their game far less dangerous for the Pacers. This is because, while he can knock them down, Nembhard is not the three-point shooter that Haliburton is. He is incredibly streaky, and he does much more damage inside the arc.
After shooting 29.1% from deep last season, the Canadian native is up to 32.5% on 5.7 attempts per game this season. Is this an improvement? Of course, but it's still not good.
Because of this, many opposing defenses are opting to duck under the pick-and-roll, which forces Nembhard to shoot from the perimeter as it takes away a driving lane for him. This makes it much more difficult for Indiana to generate offense, which was already a struggle without Haliburton.
Plus, it's not like it's just Nembhard running the point for Indiana this season. T.J. McConnell has been back for a few games now (and he's not a shooting threat), and even guys like Ben Sheppard and Monte Morris have been tasked with running the offense this season.
According to NBA.com, the Pacers' ball-handlers are shooting 36.4% from the field this season in pick-and-roll situations. They shot 44% or better in every season since 2019-20 before this one.
Nembhard is figuring things out, like Caitlin Cooper of Basketball, She Wrote has mentioned on X, but it's still a problem nonetheless. Haliburton has been the Pacers' most important player for a few years, and the team is learning firsthand exactly why this season.