Nothing could be worse than last year for Indiana Pacers fans. After finally making it to the Finals for the first time in a quarter of a century, their team lost in heartbreaking fashion. Not only that, but their franchise star, Tyrese Haliburton, tore his Achilles tendon.
That left us in 2025-26 with an aimless Pacers gap year that ended with the addition of Ivica Zubac but no top pick as was initially promised.
If last year was a sad disappointment, this coming year has been heralded in a very Star Wars-ian fashion; it is a new hope.
But the question is: should it be?
Is Pacers' optimism realistic?
A team can rarely take a massive leap from absolutely terrible to a championship contender. Every example you may be thinking of is of a team that owned a top pick as part of a previous trade. That's how the LA Lakers got Elgin Baylor and how the Detroit Pistons got Darko Milicic (lol).
Teams going from worst to first are rare. Last year, the Charlotte Hornets went from the fourth overall pick to a decent team, which meant losing in the play-in despite their insane advanced statistics.
This is not what Pacers fans are hoping for, however. Those fans are likely hoping to instantaneously leap straight into championship contention, a spot they were in just over a year ago.
While the Pacers better emulate a different historical team, the standard for that is the Boston Celtics of the late 2000s. They had the third overall pick but used it to trade for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, immediately winning a championship in what was the best turnaround in NBA history.
Is Ivica Zubac a good equivalent of bringing in Allen and Garnett? No. But, the Pacers have a better team around them than the Celtics did with just Paul Pierce.
What does a successful season look like for the Pacers?
Everyone knows that expectations are the thief of joy. Expecting Indiana to pull off a turnaround of the kind we have basically never seen is failing to consider how hard it is. When the Golden State Warriors won their title in 2022, it was after two gap years, many failed draft picks, and career-best seasons from four separate rotation-level role players who never came close to that level ever again.
With those two best-case scenarios in place, how is it possible for anyone to expect something that has never happened before?
Isn't that just begging for the pain of disappointment?
And yet, the thought is still there. There's something about the return of Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith that fills the Pacers' sails with the bluster to believe. There's something about a roster that features at least three top-40 players in perfect harmony.
Fans are meant to believe. That's why their expectations are always high. There is no reason to tear that down.
However, even just a return to a top seed would be enough to believe that the foundations are being built back stronger. A conference finals appearance would prove that the Pacers are still a top-four team in the league when healthy.
Even if history says that it's wrong to believe in that.
A successful Pacers season is simply one that returns hope. That would be enough.
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