Andy Bailey of Bleacher Report predicted that Bennedict Mathurin will win the Most Improved Player award this season.
On paper, this could be great for the Indiana Pacers as it shows how much of an impact he can make. However, the team just opted not to sign him to a rookie-scale contract extension, and if he plays maybe a little too well this season and becomes an award winner, they might not afford to sign him to a second deal at all next summer.
A lot of eyes are on Mathurin to prove his value. After three years of dealing with inconsistencies (going back and forth as a starter and bench player and seeing drastic changes in his minutes), the Canadian native will finally have an opportunity to showcase exactly what he brings to the table.
This season, the Pacers are expected to place Mathurin into the starting lineup at shooting guard alongside Andrew Nembhard. Paired with Indiana needing to rely on his shot-creation much more without Tyrese Haliburton, this could be the formula for a breakout season for the Arizona alum.
Mathurin has something to prove to the Pacers, and that is that he is a long-term asset to the team. However, the front office has already seemingly made it clear they are still looking to avoid paying the luxury tax, which puts Mathurin's future with the team up in the air.
Can Bennedict Mathurin win Most Improved Player this season?
To keep it simple: yes.
There is a lot to like about Mathurin's game. In his first three seasons in the league, he averaged 15.9 points while shooting 44.6% from the field and 34.2% from beyond the arc. Additionally, while he still has work to do, he has improved a lot in every other area of his game since joining the league.
In January, head coach Rick Carlisle praised Mathurin's development as a player. Considering that he just turned 23 years old in June, there are reasons to believe he is only going to get better from here on out.
"This is a winning brand of basketball that he's playing now," Carlisle said about Mathurin in January. "You know? He's learned some things. He's realized some things. He and I have spent a lot of time talking about it and watching things. If he's willing to run and take open shots, avoid the temptation to drive into crowds and try to draw fouls and play tough, hard-nosed defense, that's a winning formula for a young player."
Mathurin has already proven he is a tremendous scorer, but he should be able to turn it up another level and potentially reach 20 points per game this season. If he does, then winning the Most Improved Player award may be a guarantee.
Points aren't everything in the NBA, and they aren't even necessarily everything when it comes to this award either. However, it's clear that the league values a jump in scoring output.
With the exception of Julius Randle in 2020-21, every player who has won the award in at least the last 25 years averaged five or more points per game from the season before.
Last season, Mathurin averaged 16.1 points per game on 11.8 field goal attempts per game. Plus, his efficiency has improved each year of his career (43.4 FG% to 44.6 FG% to 45.8 FG%)
Fans should expect all of these numbers to skyrocket as the Pacers look to find ways to generate more points without Haliburton or Myles Turner. And, if he takes a big enough leap, then the Most Improved Player award may be inevitable.
However, this would be a bit of a bittersweet development for Indiana, and it will then have to make a big decision next summer. Does the team opt to bring him back following what would likely be a career year, even if it pushes them into the luxury tax? Or do they let him walk as a restricted free agent or move on via a sign-and-trade, but lose someone who can be a long-time contributor for the team?
The Pacers may have some big decisions to make next year, and what they decide could determine just how open their championship window is for the foreseeable future.