Bennedict Mathurin is predicted to average 20+ points per game for the Indiana Pacers this season by Grant Hughes of Bleacher Report, and this may end up doing the team more harm than good in the long run.
"Mathurin has never averaged more than 30.0 minutes per game, and he hasn't attempted over 12.0 shots per contest since he was a rookie," Hughes wrote. "He'll blow past both those figures this season and could easily crack the 20.0-point mark for a Pacers squad that'll need his high-volume scoring."
This season, the Pacers are going to start Mathurin at shooting guard.
As it stands, there are reasons to believe that a breakout year for the Canadian native is inevitable. Mathurin has already shown flashes of being a long-time contributor in Indiana, stepping up during the NBA Finals, and he is now going to be tasked with a much bigger and more consistent role this season.
Mathurin is eligible for a rookie-scale contract extension, but it is looking like the Pacers are not going to give it to him. Instead, they will give him this season to showcase his value and prove that he is deserving of a second contract with the team.
While this decision makes sense for Indiana, there is also a legitimate chance that this will backfire as a breakout year would likely make the 23-year-old too expensive for the team to keep around. This would make his Pacers exit inevitable, and they would lose him for nothing even as a restricted free agent next summer.
Bennedict Mathurin has a lot to prove this season
There is a lot to like about Mathurin's game, but his future with the Pacers is up in the air. This season will be a great chance for him to make his stance with the team crystal clear.
The Arizona alum is a fantastic scorer, averaging a career 15.9 points on 44.6% shooting from the field, mostly as a bench player. However, he is not a great fit in the Pacers' system because he is more of an iso scorer. While he excels in this area, the Pacers are a team that likes to keep the ball moving and push the tempo. This means that Mathurin may be lowering Indiana's ceiling and vice versa.
Furthermore, Mathurin does not provide much value elsewhere. His 1.8 assists to 1.8 turnovers ratio is very bad, even for a non-point guard, and his defense leaves a lot to be desired.
A breakout year for Mathurin would do wonders for his career. Not only would it prove exactly how much he can contribute in a consistent role on the court, but it would also drive up his value. This wouldn't be good news for the Pacers, but it would be excellent news for him.
There is no doubt that Mathurin has talent. The real question is whether he can fit well with the Pacers long-term as they look to re-establish themselves as title contenders. Plus, even if he can, it might not be worth it for Indiana to give him a new contract and likely force its way into the luxury tax threshold.
Ultimately, the Pacers have a decision to make. Either they can let him do his thing this season and hope to get a definitive answer before he hits restricted free agency, or trade him during the year and completely avoid a worst-case scenario of losing him for nothing if his value gets too high.
Next season will be a big one for Mathurin. He could be in line for a career year, and while that could be great news for the Pacers, it may also signal the end of his days with the team.