Back in 2023, during the height of NBA free agency, the Indiana Pacers poached one of the reigning-champion Denver Nuggets' most important players with a stroke-of-genius strategy. Fast forward to now, with the 2025 offseason just around the corner, and they better hope another team doesn’t follow their lead.
Because it could cost them Myles Turner.
The Bruce Brown strategy could come back to bite the Pacers
Indiana offered Bruce Brown Jr. a two-year, $45 million deal, with a team option in Season 2 during 2023 free agency. It was waaay more than the Nuggets were allowed to pay him, and just a generally substantial overpay. But the Pacers bankrolled the contract anyway, accomplishing two things in the process: deepening their immediate rotation, and adding a contract ready-made to flip as part of a larger trade later on.
The move was initially seen as low-risk, high-reward. It ended up being no-risk, all-reward. Brown's $22 million salary was a key ingredient in bringing Pascal Siakam to The Hoosier State.
Now, however, the stage is set for another team to play this card at the Pacers’ expense. Turner is headed for free agency at the opportune time. Not only does his skill set remain scarce—big men who can protect the rim and stretch the floor are still rarities—but he’s helping drive Indiana’s second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearance. When all’s told, he could be impacting the fate of an NBA Finals squad, if not an outright NBA champion.
You better believe prospective suitors are going to take notice. That should scare the Pacers. They aren’t bound by the same restrictions the Nuggets were with Brown, but their cap sheet lends itself to complications.
Indiana projects to be $20 million beneath the luxury tax this summer. That’s without factoring in a new deal for Turner. Even if he’s willing to return for his current price point ($19.9 million), the Pacers would be entering the luxury tax, which they have historically avoided no matter how talented they may be at the time.
If another team comes calling offering noticeably more than Turner’s current rate, it could end in disaster. Indiana would lose him for nothing, be without a starting center, and have nothing more than the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (at best) to spend on a new one.
How worried should the Pacers be?
To what extent the Pacers should be concerned is debatable. A lot is still riding on how they finish their season.
On the bright side, Turner will have a tough time leaving without their help. The Brooklyn Nets are set up to define the offseason, because they are the only team guaranteed to have the cap space required to outbid the Pacers.
Would general manager Sean Marks really offer Turner something like two years and $60 million? With his team in the early aughts of a rebuild? And with Nicolas Claxton already on Brooklyn’s payroll? Conventional wisdom suggests no. But the Nets have to hit the salary floor somehow, Turner stretches defenses enough on offense to play beside another non-spacing big, and overpriced short-term contracts are valuable salary-matchers closer to the trade deadline. (Again: See what the Pacers did with Bruce Brown.)
Plus, it’s not like Brooklyn is Turner’s only option. The Detroit Pistons can jimmy up $25-plus million in cap space if they don’t want to re-sign Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley or Dennis Schroder. They can also look to keep Beasley and Schroder, then dump Isaiah Stewart or Tobias Harris to open up the room necessary to tender a big offer for Turner.
Don’t rule out a dark horse candidate, either. A couple of squads are a few simple salary dumps away from carving out serious spending power. The Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards, and Atlanta Hawks all fall under this bucket. Pretty much every single one could convince themselves that they have use for Turner on an inflated two- or three-year deal.
Indiana needs to make Turner a priority
For the time being, the Pacers have bigger fish to fry than Turner’s free agency. The New York Knicks await in the Eastern Conference Finals. This is very clearly the franchise’s best crack at a title since the halcyon Reggie Miller days.
Turner’s future must nevertheless be top-of-mind. Things move fast in the NBA, and it’s a minor miracle that he remains in Indiana 10 years later. The Pacers must do what it takes, within reason, to keep him. He is a skeleton key that unlocks so much of their versatility. If ducking the tax is a mandate from ownership, they have to figure out how to afford him anyway, even if it demands they dump other salary.
After all, if they don’t pay him what it takes, some other team will.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.