A season ago, the Indiana Pacers ended their four-year-long playoff drought by finally qualifying for the postseason. They were in the middle of the pack within the Eastern Conference standings. The eventual NBA Champions, the Boston Celtics, locked up the first seed in the East. The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks were the second and third seeds, respectively.
That set the Pacers up nicely to battle through two playoff series against higher-ranked opponents. In addition, they were the underdogs facing teams that won more regular season games, earning them homecourt advantage in those series.
As the sixth seed in the 2024 postseason, Indiana upset the Bucks in six games. They dropped Game 1 in Milwaukee to open up the first round. The next three playoff games went to the Pacers.
Indiana closed out the series at home in Game 6, 120-98. Their next opponent was the Knicks. Down two games coming back to play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Pacers tied up the series ahead of Game 5.
The Eastern Conference Semifinals between these two teams went in favor of head coach Rick Carlisle’s squad. They took Games 6 and 7 to advance to the Conference Finals for the first time in nearly two decades.
What's different about the potential playoff seeding this season?
The Pacers certainly benefited from being the Eastern Conference’s sixth seed in the postseason bracket last season. This year, a sixth seed may not be as favorable.
The two teams that appear to be the first and second seeds are the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Celtics. Indiana is on pace for the play-in (seeds 7-10). Entering Saturday, they are two games out from being the fifth seed.
The Pacers may not benefit from the sixth seed this postseason like they did last year. The Knicks and the Orlando Magic look to be the third and fourth-best teams in the East. The Pacers have dropped games to both of those opponents already.
Indiana has yet to play the Cavaliers. They defeated the Celtics in their fifth game of the season, but it took overtime to do so.
Tyrese Haliburton and his teammates get two more matchups (both at Boston) against the Celtics before the end of this month. Indiana will see the Cavaliers back-to-back in mid-January for a home-and-away matchup.
The Pacers have split games against the Knicks this season and they have only won one time out of the three contests against the Magic. Thus, there may not be an easy path for the Pacers this postseason should they qualify for a second year in a row.
While Indiana has struggled to defend well again and score as much as they did last season, wins have become scarce for the Pacers. Hopefully, they earn enough victories to extend their season in late spring again.
History doesn't favor the Pacers in the playoffs if the season ended today
In the last five postseasons, there has been one upset in the first round. Most recently, the sixth-seeded Pacers ousted the Bucks in six games. The season before then, the Bucks also experienced a first-round exit when they were thwarted from the playoffs by the eighth-seeded Miami Heat.
None of the lower four seeds in the East left the first round of the postseason in 2022. However, the fifth seed defeated the fourth seed in 2020 and 2021.
We would have to go back as far as 2015 to find a fifth instance in the past 10 years. The Washington Wizards were a fifth seed in back-to-back years then that advanced to the second round.
History is not looking too friendly for the Pacers to be a lower seed in two consecutive seasons to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. It is a rare feat and one that is unlikely to happen again should Indiana qualify for the playoffs again.
Regardless of where they rank or finish, the Pacers may not like where they land in the playoff bracket. If they can't win more than they lose, Indiana may be lucky to be even in the top 10 in the Eastern Conference.