How soon will Indiana Pacers fans know if their team is on its way to a good season?
History says we’ll have a pretty good idea by Thanksgiving weekend.
Basketball wisdom says the 2026-27 Pacers surely need time to build on-court chemistry with so many players either new to the roster or returning from injuries. Basketball history says they need to figure it out quickly. Ideally within the first 20 games.
Lucky number 13
Indiana will have 20 games in the books by the end of November. If the Pacers have 13 wins in 20 games, they are probably on their way to a good season.
What constitutes a good season?
Forty-seven seems to be a magic number of wins for the franchise in its NBA era. All 10 Indiana teams that advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals won at least 47 games (or would have done so over a full season). We’ll assume the 2026-27 Pacers need to finish with 47 victories to have a realistic chance at a postseason run.
Nine Indiana teams have won at least 13 of their first 20 games since the franchise joined the NBA. Eight of those nine teams won at least 47 games or were on pace to do so in a lockout- or COVID-shortened season. The lone exception was the 1989-90 team, which got off to a surprising 13-5 start after finishing 28-54 the previous season before leveling off for a 42-40 finish.
A 12-8 start likely will result in a postseason trip. The only Pacer team to start 12-8 or better and fail to make the playoffs was the 2022-23 team, which was derailed by – sound familiar? – an injury-plagued season for star guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Don’t give up hope if the Pacers are hovering around .500 through the first 20 games. True, a start around .500 usually ends with a finish around .500. However, two of the Indiana teams that reached the conference finals started 9-11 – including the 2024-25 team that reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The 2024-25 team didn’t move above the .500 mark for good until Jan. 6. The 1993-94 squad was below .500 as late as Feb. 16.
Unlucky number 7
Pacers fans don’t want to contemplate the possibility of another bad year after the disaster that was the 2025-26 season, but they should know a 7-13 record or worse through the first 20 games would be a giant red flag.
No Indiana team that started 7-13 or worse has finished with more than 38 wins. None of the 10 made the postseason. Last season’s team was no exception. The Pacers started 4-16 – the franchise’s worst mark through 20 games. Indiana finished with a 19-63 record – the worst in team history.
A guaranteed winner
An interesting Indiana history footnote: If the Pacers have a winning record after the 60th game of the season, they don’t finish below .500. None of the 20 Indiana teams that were above .500 after the 60th game of the season finished with a losing record.
All is not lost if the Pacers are below .500 late in the season. Four Indiana squads that were below .500 after Game 60 rallied to finish with a winning record. All four qualified for the postseason.
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