Sam Vecenie of The Athletic recently predicted that the Indiana Pacers will not finish as a top-10 offense in the NBA this season on "The Game Theory" podcast. However, Rick Carlisle is not going to let that happen, and the Pacers' offense should still be incredible this season.
"Teams in the top 10 [in offensive rating last season] that will probably drop out of the top 10, I would guess that Phoenix and Indiana probably drop out. Although, Indiana is a team led by Rick Carlisle that has some real infrastructure, so I'm not sitting here saying that it's a guarantee they drop out," Vecenie said.
To be fair, Vecenie's comments are not completely misguided.
The Pacers, whose 116.5 offensive rating last season was the ninth-best in the NBA, are going to be without Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner this season. They were two of the team's most important players in recent history, particularly on offense. Haliburton was the engine that made everything run due to his elite playmaking and scoring, whereas Turner is among the best in the league at stretching the floor.
Even so, Indiana still has a talented roster without those two, and Carlisle knows how to get the most out of his players (see: Haliburton, Obi Toppin, and Aaron Nesmith).
Though the Pacers still have some problems to work out (i.e., their backup point guard dilemma and center situation), they should still be an amazing offensive team. This is largely because of Carlisle, who was recently voted the best offensive mind in the NBA.
With Carlisle leading the way, there are no reasons to believe the Pacers won't continue to be a great offensive team. He has implemented a fantastic run-and-gun offensive system that very few teams in the league can pull off.
The Pacers are one of them, and even though they are going to be without a couple of important players, they still have what it takes to make an impact on offense.
How the Pacers can remain an elite offensive team this season
Though he is no Haliburton, there are still reasons to believe that Andrew Nembhard can run the point in his place for a whole season.
The Canadian native is a natural point guard who has looked amazing as a secondary ball-handler in recent years. Furthermore, when he has been asked to step up without Haliburton, he has made a big impact.
This season, the offense will play to his strengths a bit more. Carlisle already said the team's pace is not going to change much, but there will still be some adjustments they will make.
Nembhard excels in traditional half-court sets as a shifty ball-handler. For him to be at his best this season, the Pacers will need to utilize this more often. And, as it stands, it seems likely that this will be the case.
Indiana will also need to rely on Bennedict Mathurin more as a shot-creator in order to generate points. Fortunately for the team, it's a small sample size, but he has already proven that he is up for the task. Now that he is in line for his biggest role yet as the Pacers' starting shooting guard, he should only continue to showcase more of what makes him special as a bucket-getter.
Additionally, a lot more eyes will be on Pascal Siakam to step up.
The Cameroon native has been an important part of Indiana's success since the team acquired him from the Toronto Raptors in 2024. However, without Haliburton or Turner this season, he should get a lot more touches and will have an opportunity to play his best basketball yet.
They may not lead the league in scoring this season, but the Pacers are not a team to count out. There is a reason they have been an elite offensive team for a few years, and if Carlisle has it his way, that will not change any time soon.
Everybody is continuing to count Indiana out, which is when it plays its highest level. So, who knows, maybe the Pacers will be able to make some noise and shock the basketball world. It's happened before, and if the team plays to its full potential, they may be able to do it again.