Ever since Tyrese Haliburton went down with his devastating Achilles injury, one of the most popular takes is that the Pacers missed their championship window. In reality, this take is completely ridiculous, and their window is actually just now opening (and is yet another layer of disrespect for Indy).
Here are the top three reasons why the Pacers are primed to compete for another 5-10 years.
Their timeline is aligned or ahead of multiple previous Finals Champions
The supposed gap year upcoming for the Pacers has led many to believe that the best of this iteration of the team is behind them. Their timeline, though, says the opposite.
Haliburton will only be 26 years old when he returns from injury and was drafted the same year as Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith. Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin were drafted two years after them. Pascal Siakam is older but is under contract through 2028 and is only 31 years old. The team is continually developing and now has the experience of two straight deep playoff runs, including a conference championship. Just because Haliburton, a star just entering his prime, didn’t secure the Larry O’Brien trophy on this most recent attempt, does not mean that the ship has sailed.
Two examples that prove this reality are the 2011 Mavericks and the 2024 Celtics. The 2011 Mavericks won their championship, led by Dirk Nowitzki, and they were coached by Rick Carlisle (oh, how interesting). The squad was great, but many forget (or don’t know) that Nowitzki was in season number 13 and had previously failed to close the deal five years earlier in 2006.
Haliburton, leading his team in year five (3.5 of those with Indy, remember), came within a breath of a title. Nowitzki's story says his time is not up. Jayson Tatum’s Celtics, remembered for their depth, 3-point shooting, and dominant title in 2024, also failed in their 2022 Finals trip. Overshadowed by the return of Stephen Curry’s Warriors to the top, the 2022 iteration of the Celtics looked very similar to the 2025 Pacers – a team establishing itself as a perennial contender with a fifth-year superstar and an ascending cast. Every picture of Tatum holding his trophy is a reminder that trajectory and “title windows” are not purely linear.
In today’s NBA, aging players stay better longer
Just because the Pacers didn’t end the season with a victory and Haliburton won’t return until 2026, that extended timeline should not give anyone much pause. Who beat the 2022 Celtics again? Right, a certain Golden State Warriors. Fun fact, their starting lineup had an average age of 29.1. That is almost four full years older than the Pacers’ starters this past season (25.4). Include the removal of 28-year-old Myles Turner, and the age of the Pacers' core looks incredibly young.
One of the reasons that the average age matters less now than ever is the sustained skill level of athletes over time now compared to the past. Lebron is 40. Steph is 37 and was 35 when he won his 4th title. Dirk was 32 when he won his title (and Finals MVP and 2nd team All-NBA the same year). Siakam, Indiana's oft-forgotten older All-Star, is younger than all of these players. Haliburton and the rest of the non-Siakam or McConnell core have a decade or more until they reach the age of these players (and with this footage of McConnell, it looks like we are safe for a few seasons). While they won’t all be at their best (or on the team) 10 years from now, it seems ludicrous to tell me they have peaked already.
The trajectory of this Pacers squad is still ascending
A majority of pundits thought Kevin Pritchard and the Pacers were crazy to stick with the status quo in 2024 free agency, betting on their squad to improve after their ECF loss. That gamble turned out pretty well (if you remember the trophy hoisted in mid-June, I mean). The success of that roster creation should tell us something – Pritchard and brass know that there is something special with this group of guys, even at their young age. (Honestly, that move gives off vibes of the Golden State Warriors front office after 2013. The executives saw something no one else did.) This group is still getting better, and more experience means higher quality players. Hungrier players. Smarter players. Peak players.
A title is never guaranteed, but the Pacers’ window of opportunity isn’t closed. It is just getting started.