The Indiana Pacers fell two points short of the Atlanta Hawks in preseason on Saturday night. With a final score of 119-117, the entire game came down to the final possession. After a made three-pointer from Reink Mast, the Pacers managed to play the free-throw game until they were able to get a rebound off a missed shot from the line and head downcourt.
It was Braden Smith, the Pacers ' second-round pick rookie, who took the final shot. After getting a screen from Jalen Slawson, Smith headed downhill towards the rim where, after a few pivots, he tried to put up a layup under the rim that did not get anywhere close to scoring.
This is the primary worry in drafting a 5'10 point guard who cannot shoot from distance, has no impressive athletic traits, and cannot finish at an elite level below the basket. Smith is functionally one of those old-school, do-nothing-but-pass point guards. If the Pacers want him to be anything in the NBA, he needs to add not one, not two, but probably three different serviceable NBA-level traits and skills to his repertoire.
That seems extraordinarily unlikely for a player who is already 23 entering his rookie season.
Drafting is not easy
Second-round picks are dart throws. The players who were drafted in the wee hours of the night are rarely difference-makers, and if they are, they fell for understandable and expected reasons.
Even Nikola Jokić, who is by all accounts one of the best players of all time, made sense as a second-round pick.
People don't remember this, but his breakout season in the EuroLeague happened the year after he was drafted. Before that moment, he was an overweight teenager with some playmaking abilities whom even the Nuggets weren't sure would come to the United States.
However, weight can be lost, players can be convinced to come to the US, and warts can be largely outgrown. The question instead becomes: how many of those warts will need to be overcome, and what is the potential upside of a player hitting their potential?
That was always the weird part about Smith. Even in a best-case scenario, he is a decent backup point guard with no real potential to ever be a starter.
It's not the 80s and 90s anymore; Muggsy Bogues does not exist in the modern NBA, and even Nate Robinson, who may just be the most recent example of a micro-sized point guard making it work, had absurd athleticism on his size to make up for other deficiencies.
Many will point to TJ McConnell, but that feels remarkably disingenuous as well. McConnell is two inches taller than Smith, is a much better defender, and has become an elite finisher under the rim compared to what his athleticism and size would suggest.
No, Braden Smith is not a TJ McConnell replacement; you may not even make it more than 2 years into his rookie contract. He is a G League player, and there is nothing wrong with that, but that final shot made it abundantly clear that he has so much to work on.
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