Whether it's the right call or not remains to be seen, but as it stands, it seems inevitable that Bennedict Mathurin is going to hit restricted free agency next year.
The Canadian native is eligible for a rookie-scale contract extension with the Indiana Pacers this offseason, but the team has given no indication that they are going to give it to him. Instead, the Pacers are going to give Mathurin the opportunity to earn his next contract and prove his worth while taking on a bigger role as their starting shooting guard.
In a recent episode of the Game Theory Podcast, Sam Vecenie noted that Mathurin should have a big season next year, and if the Pacers want to keep him around for the long run, they may be better off signing him to a contract extension this offseason instead of letting his free agency play out next summer.
"Benn Mathurin is gonna score. He is going to put up buckets. He's going to get numbers, and yet, I wonder if that kind of stops this from getting done... This is where your internal information is so critical on these things. Where, if you really believe in Mathurin, you do it now. You're like, 'Ok, we're signing this extension now, we're keeping him, we're doing it this way,'" Vecenie said.
Letting Bennedict Mathurin hit restricted free agency is very risky
Given how the restricted free agency market has looked this offseason, this approach could make sense for Indiana.
Cam Thomas ended up signing his $6 million player option with the Brooklyn Nets and will be an unrestricted free agent next year, and Josh Giddey ultimately signed a four-year, $100 million contract to stay with the Chicago Bulls, which was a bit lower than his initial $30 million AAV asking price.
However, things could also go the Jonathan Kuminga route, who remains a free agent with nearly a month left in the offseason, and his future with the Golden State Warriors is still up in the air.
The Pacers have plenty of options with Mathurin, but it remains to be seen which one is the right one. They can extend him now, let him test the market next summer, or trade him at some point in between.
It makes sense for Indiana to want the Arizona alum to play next season out and showcase his worth, but if they want him to remain with the team past next season (which they should), signing him to a rookie-scale contract extension may be in their best interest.
Now that he is going to have some more opportunities next season, there are reasons to believe that Mathurin is going to have a career year, and it may ultimately cost the Pacers more to retain him than it does right now. Given that they seem to still want to avoid paying the luxury tax, this could put them in a bad situation.
On the flip side, this could be a good thing for Indiana if the team opts to trade him instead during the season, but this would be an incredibly risky move for them that could backfire.
The Pacers have proven that they can contend with Mathurin on the roster, even if he is not a great fit due to his "ball-stopper" playstyle on offense. Furthermore, he is only 23 years old and has the potential to blossom into something great.
Mathurin is almost assuredly going to be a restricted free agent next summer. Hopefully for the Pacers, this decision pans out for them.