Ever since he was drafted with the sixth pick in the 2022 draft, fans have been expecting fireworks from Bennedict Mathurin. While many of those fans have been left relatively disappointed thus far, this season might prove to be the one we have been waiting for these last three years. Why now? Well, we can see a comparable trajectory in one of the NBA’s most envied (and highest paid) stars – Jaylen Brown.
Let the stats speak for themselves
The best way to see how Brown’s trajectory provides hope (and excitement) for Mathurin is to do a blind comparison between some of their stats from their first 3 seasons (all stats from StatMuse for Brown and Mathurin).
Player A averaged 11.2 PPG and Player B averaged 15.9 PPG.
Player B is Mathurin.
Player A averaged 4.5 rebounds/game and Player B averaged 4 rebounds/game.
Player A is Mathurin.
Player A averaged 1.8 assists/game and Player B averaged 1.3 assists/game.
Player A is Mathurin.
Player A had a +/- increase by 188 (+188) from year 1 to year 3, and Player B had a +/- increase by 273 (+273) from year 1 to year 3.
Player B is Mathurin.
While statistics aren’t a player’s entire story, there is something to be said for the trajectory and the relative quality someone like Mathurin has had compared to Brown, now a 4x All-Star, in his early years. Not every potential star player enters the league and takes it by storm (do we remember Tyrese Haliburton’s first few seasons?). Some players, like Brown and Mathurin, need continued development to reach their ceiling. We need to take the long view, rather than expecting top-tier stats the moment a young player hits the court.
Bennedict Mathurin needs time and opportunity
In his fourth season, Brown got a minutes-per-game jump of 8 minutes, moving from 25.9-33.9 mpg. While Mathurin has often been the sixth man, his minutes have never averaged above 30 per game. With his opportunity to hold a starting spot this season, the Canadian native is in line to receive a workload that could allow him to make a jump Brown-like in season four. Brown’s MPG, PPG, RPG, and APG all increased from 25.9/13.0/4.2/1.4 to 33.9/20.3/6.4/2.1 from year three to four. A small uptick in stats would be expected with the significant increase in minutes, but an increase across the board and a better assist-to-turnover ratio point to higher development.
Mathurin is in line for a similar minutes increase, but also an opportunity increase as he will need to be an offensive engine if the Pacers are to have a semblance of success. Andrew Nembhard is fantastic in his role, but he is not the dynamic offensive player the Pacers are missing in Haliburton. The mantle is available, and Mathurin has the opportunity to seize it.
A bona fide star on a bona fide team
The Celtics’ consistent power is one similar to the Pacers’: they’re a very deep team. Brown in particular had to develop in the shadow of Jayson Tatum – the true face of the team. Similarly, Mathurin has had to develop in the shadow of a very deep Pacers team and the All-Star (and superstar) turn of Haliburton.
This obscure upcoming season might be exactly what Mathurin needs to blossom and exactly what the Pacers need to maximize their roster. An All-Star level Mathurin would bring the future Pacers to a lineup similar to the 2024 championship Celtics, with Nembhard occupying the role similar to Jrue Holiday and Aaron Nesmith moving back to a sixth man role. While there are still many moving pieces and much to be discovered, a Mathurin star leap would give the Pacers an enviable problem – playing all of their high-quality players.
Mathurin is still only 23 years old. This upcoming season could be incredibly telling for his future with the franchise and his NBA career. While it might be simpler to write him off and move salary cap money elsewhere, that is not the best-case scenario. I doubt many would choose to move on from the Arizona alum instead of watching a Brown-type leap in year 4. And that leap is not as far-fetched as many people might think.