It is safe to say that the 2026-27 season will be the single most consequential season in the Pacers' recent history.
Their run in 2024-25 nearly netted the team their first NBA championship – here's your quick reminder that they have three ABA championships – Indiana was clearly playing with house money at the time.
Now, the stakes are higher than they've ever been.
Off the bat, Tyrese Halliburton will be returning after suffering an Achilles tear in that playoff run. The Iowa State product will need to reach a high level of play for Indiana to have any chance at resurrecting the team that took a step back last year.
This roster straight up cannot succeed without an elite Halliburton. Even just returning to 60% of who he was would be a devastating loss, and it's unlikely the Pacers could recover.
Simultaneously, Indiana does not have time to wait out a slow recovery schedule. They cannot give Halliburton the training wheels he might need because of how little time this team has.
Pascal Siakam is 32. Trade deadline acquisition Ivica Zubac is 29. T.J. McConnell, the man who has stuck around through everything, through rebuild and retool, is 34 and likely on his last legs.
No. It feels impossible that this season would simply end in an average place. Instead, this will be a polarized year, where either the Pacers push themselves back into contention for the title they so badly want, or the team will find itself without a future to pursue and with veterans they will need to trade on expiring contracts as this iteration comes to a sad close, with only memories of the what-if that is the 2024-25 NBA Finals.
Why is it so hard to be normal about the Pacers?
Tempering expectations feels impossible for this team. The most realistic situation is not one of averages; it is one of extremes.
While Halliburton's return is not the only storyline going into this year, it is by far the most vital.
If we were making a list of team needs and questions the franchise needs to answer, Halliburton's health and level of play would be each of the first 10 most important, leaving depth concerns and roster fit far behind.
That's why it feels so impossible to be normal right now.
Jayson Tatum, who suffered his Achilles tear at a similar time to Halliburton, came back earlier last season. He returned at around 70% strength and was – to his credit – a high quality starter and fringe star during that run.
Unfortunately, as impressive as that return was, it's not quite good enough for a player who was once top-five in the league.
The truth remains that Tatum could return to that same level of play, as could Halliburton. But if Tyrese returns at that 70%, this Pacers era is over. If he returns at 100%, this Pacers era could well win a title very soon.
The difference between those 70% and 100% seems simple and easy to conceptualize on paper, but the truth is that distance is a chasm, and whatever truth about this Indiana Pacers season lies beneath will not be one that we expect.
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