Heat vs. Pacers prediction and odds for Monday, December 12 (Value on Indiana at home)

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-USA TODAY Sports /

There aren’t many people who expected the Indiana Pacers to be over .500 27 games into the 2022-23 season, but they are heading into Monday’s game with the Miami Heat.

The Heat are off to a slow start this season, as injuries to Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro have severely limited the team’s ceiling early in the season. Miami has a loaded injury report in this game, but Herro, Butler, Duncan Robinson and Max Strus are all listed as probable.

The Pacers are coming off a close loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their last game, but the team has Tyrese Haliburton back and healthy after he missed a few games last week.

Indiana has gone 4-2 against the spread so far this season as a home underdog, and the team finds itself back in that spot with Miami in town tonight.

Do the Heat start to play more like the team that was the No. 1 seed in the East last season? Or will the Pacers continue to play above expectations this season?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this game and make a pick:

Heat vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Heat vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

There are a few trends in favor of the Pacers this season, who are one of the better teams to bet on, going 15-12 against the spread in their first 27 games.

The Heat have been dreadful against the spread as favorites this season, going just 4-13-1 against the spread, the worst record in the NBA for a team that has been favored in three or more games.

Miami is coming off a brutal loss on Saturday night against the San Antonio Spurs. The Heat were 12-point home favorites in that game.

I actually think this is a game that Indiana may have a shot to win, as the Pacers have been one of the better offensive teams in the NBA this season.

Indiana ranks 13th in the league in offensive rating, and it plays at a fast pace (fourth in the NBA this season) which could be problematic for Miami.

The Heat would prefer to slow games down, ranking 26th in the league in pace and 24th in offensive rating. Butler, Oladipo and Herro in the lineup certainly boosts Miami’s offensive profile, but the team lost against the Spurs with all of those players healthy.

Miami is also just 3-9 straight up on the road this season, so I see this as a potential upset spot for the Pacers. Either way, I’ll gladly take the three points to back Haliburton and company tonight.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.