Indiana Pacers: evaluating Myles Turner’s trade value post injury

With the NBA Trade Deadline just three weeks away, the Indiana Pacers’ underwhelming season has them positioned to be a seller come Feb.10th.

Anticipation of changes is high, but there could be a setback on what moves are made after the recent injury news to longest-tenured Pacer, Myles Turner.

After dealing with some pain in his foot, the Indiana Pacers and Myles Turner decided he should get a second opinion when the team made their way to Los Angeles for their 5-game west coast road trip. Tuesday on the Pacers’ off day, it was deemed that Myles Turner has a stress reaction in his left foot.

https://twitter.com/AlexGoldenNBA/status/1483614233824841733?s=20

A stress reaction has occurred to other NBA players before, and the average length of time missed with this injury is twenty games. Turner missed Monday’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers and will miss the next 12-games remaining before the NBA trade deadline.

Turner is scheduled to have a CT scan in two weeks to get a clearer understanding of what this injury looks like. As the Indiana Pacers patiently await the results of that CT scan they must begin to weigh their options.

Do they potentially lose value in a trade before the deadline by moving an injured Turner, or do they wait till the offseason once he’s fully recovered from the injury and see what value he has entered the final year of his contract?

What caused the Pacers to want to move on from Turner?

In December Myles Turner spoke with Jared Weiss of The Athletic about his role with the Indiana Pacers. Being in the shadows offensively of Domantas Sabonis and after hearing his name in numerous trade rumors, you can understand why Turner publicly voiced his frustrations, not just to Weiss but on The Noble and Roosh Show and The Hoops Hype podcast with Michael Scotto.

Before the article with Weiss was published, the Indiana Pacers got the word out to Bob Kravitz and Shams Charania that they were open for a (soft) rebuild.

Getting this information out before Jared Weiss’ article on Turner’s frustrations made it look as if they were open to making moves rather than this article being turned into another Pacer wants out of Indiana storyline.

Myles Turner had a solid game against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, Dec. 10th (scoring 17-points and grabbing 10-rebounds), the day after the Weiss article was released. To address the elephant in the room Turner told the media that he was just seeking “role clarity”.

Turner posted a picture to Instagram after the game of himself in a navy 1994 Indiana Pacers NBA Playoff t-shirt and bright yellow pants. He told Pacers fans in his caption: “Don’t be dumb…you know damn well it’s all love my way Indy.”

Turner’s frustrations with his role increase after poor play from the team.

Since then, the Pacers are 3-13 over the last sixteen games. During that stretch, Myles Turner has been active on social media once again, but in a negative way. He first deleted the Instagram post that he shared on December 10th, and then tweeted out after a Pacers loss to the Boston Celtics “This Ain’t P”.

https://twitter.com/Original_Turner/status/1480762144476078082?s=20

In the middle of that Celtics road game, Turner was visibly upset after being called for a foul. Sabonis leaned in to pat him on the chest and encourage him, but Turner slapped away at his hand.

Turner spent the rest of the 3rd quarter and most of the 4th quarter watching Domantas Sabonis and the second unit take the Celtics to overtime from the bench. He played a total of 1.3 seconds in the overtime period.

So it’s understandable why Turner and his management team are unhappy with his current role, but the Pacers front office can’t be happy with how Turner has handled himself. Moving on from one another was always the expected goal after Turner spoke to the media about his displeasure with his role.

Now with the trade deadline looming, the Pacers front office cannot allow emotions to play a factor in how they work to improve this roster. At the end of the day, the NBA is a business. The Pacers cannot allow frustrations with how Turner has handled things to impact the value they get in return for him.

In fact, the Indiana Pacers’ inability to move Turner prior to the start of the 2020-2021 season is what has caused this tension and frustration.

Kevin Pritchard and the front office informed Turner that he was indeed in trade talks for Gordon Hayward but Danny Ainge played hardball and landed a deal with the Charlotte Hornets instead.

So two years later and two coaches later, Turner is still on the outside looking in when it comes to the pecking order of the offense.

The Indiana Pacers two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis is the best player on the team, and with him and Turner playing the same position, it is inevitable That Sabonis should be the focal point of the team’s offense.

So how do the Pacers approach the NBA Trade Deadline with an injured Myles Turner on their hands?

Best Case Scenario
If we look at the best-case scenario for Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers, it would result in a positive CT scan in two weeks, showing that Turner could return after the NBA All-Star break. This would allow any team that is interested in trading for Turner roughly 20-games to get acclimated with his teammates and the coaching staff.

Those 20-games will also allow the franchise who trades for him the ability to see if Turner is a long-term fit for their team. Turner has desires to be extended rather than testing the open market.

The Indiana Pacers benefit from a positive CT scan by being able to move Myles before the offseason. Having roughly 20-games in the regular season and a potential chance to see how Turner plays in the playoffs will entice teams to engage with the Pacers on trade talks.

The asking price for Turner most likely won’t change from a Pacers standpoint if the CT scan comes back positive, but teams may be less interested in acquiring a player who has had multiple foot injuries over his 7-year NBA career.

Worst Case Scenario

If we look at the worst-case scenario for Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers, it would result in a negative CT scan, showing that the stress reaction is not healing properly and setting Turner’s return date back even further.

This would definitely lower the trade value of Myles Turner and it would cause teams to shy away from offering anything close to what the Indiana Pacers want in return. In addition to that, if the Pacers feel that they can’t move him for the offers they’re getting, they would then have to find a trade partner for Turner in the expiring year of his contract.

Indiana would then need for Myles to fully recover and return this season to showcase that he has indeed recovered from the injury. If Turner doesn’t return to on-court action, that too could negatively impact his offseason trade value.

Somewhere in the Middle

After assessing the best and worst-case scenarios, the Pacers could indeed be stuck somewhere in the middle with the news they could possibly receive. Turner’s CT scan could come back semi-positive, but not at the rate the team or Turner would prefer.

This would cause the Pacers to reevaluate their asking price and see if what’s available before the trade deadline is a greater value than what they could potentially receive in the offseason. The hope is that the CT scan convinces a team pursuing Myles that his injury will not be long-lasting.

Turner will only be 26-years old at the end of the season, and with an entire year left on his contract, the team trading for Turner can get a better look at him, without giving up as much as they might have had to prior to Turner’s injury.

What I think the Indiana Pacers should do.

It is a guessing game now with how significant Turner’s injury is, but I am convinced that Turner’s value will only diminish as his contract gets closer to expiring.

I don’t think this news pushes the Pacers to trade Sabonis instead. Sabonis is someone the Pacers are asking a heavy price for and multiple reports indicate that it will take a lot to pry Sabonis away from Indiana.

The Pacers need to realize they missed on moving Turner multiple times in previous off-seasons. Consistently running it back with Turner and Sabonis was going to run its’ course and now with everything that has been open to the public, it is apparent the Pacers and Turner’s relationship cannot be amended.

Kevin Pritchard and the Pacers front office should rip the band-aid off and take the best deal available to them at the NBA trade deadline. There is zero reason to let this situation play out any longer in Indiana.