The numbers behind Turner-only and Sabonis-only lineups
Turner-only minutes
The offensive shot charts when Turner is on the floor without Sabonis are fairly similar. While efficiency around the rim drops a tad, there are more orange and red hexes elsewhere, making up for the lack of makes at the rim.
On the other hand, the opponent shot chart looks much better. Gone are the orange and red hexes around the rim when Turner is the only center.
Against Atlanta, the Pacers closed without Domas and turned a 91-98 deficit into a double-digit victory in a little under nine minutes. Indiana was able to score effectively, but their defense was what stood out in those minutes.
Here, Danilo Gallinari creates an advantage after attacking Brogdon’s aggressive closeout. Even though the Hawks have numbers, Gallo dishes out to Kevin Huerter instead of challenging Turner or throwing it to someone who can challenge Turner. Atlanta still manages to get a decent look from the perimeter, but Turner’s ability to deter the driver gave the rest of the defense time to recover and keep Huerter from getting a lane to the basket.
One potential reason for why the Turner-only units have found more success this season is that he’s a better fit with Indiana’s undersized wings and guards when considering Bjorkgren’s defense. In a defensive system where ball pressure and aggressive closeouts are commonplace, the length Turner provides is vital.
Bjorkgren’s Toronto Raptors’ teams typically rolled out lineups with long wingspans and high IQ defenders that could still disrupt plays even when operating at a numbers disadvantage. The lineup that was on the floor for the above play isn’t exactly chock-full of that, but Turner can fill a large part of that role.
The two-man combination of Turner and T.J. McConnell has produced a 94.3 defensive rating, the lowest of any significant two-man lineup. McConnell’s pressure and a knack for steals pairs perfectly with an elite rim-protector and weakside defender like Turner.
Rebounding has oftentimes been the downfall of solo-Turner minutes, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Turner-only minutes have produced a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.45%, while Sabonis-only minutes have produced a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.47%. Meaning, Indiana actually grabs more of the available defensive rebounds when Turner is the sole big than when Sabonis is.
In regards to the offensive numbers, the shot profile looks roughly the same as the Sabonis-only minutes, but the difference lies in Indiana’s proficiency at getting to the free-throw line when Turner is the only center. They average six more points per 100 possessions at the free-throw line in the Turner minutes.
Like I noted earlier, a big part of the Pacers’ offense this season has been attacking the interior. While the efficiency around the rim drops a bit in the Turner minutes, his floor spacing gives more driving lanes for guards, and in turn, more free-throw attempts and kicks to open three-point shooters.
Again, this isn’t to say Turner is better than Sabonis or that the Pacers are better off with him, but to this point in the season, Indiana has performed really well in his minutes as the lone-center.