Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner’s complicated shot profile

Coming into this season, Indiana Pacers big man Myles Turner was asked to make drastic adjustments to his offensive game in order to fit rising star Domantas Sabonis into the starting lineup alongside of him.

If the success of this experiment is measured by Sabonis continuing to elevate and grow, Turner has done a great job. If success is measured by both of them excelling and progressing, Turner hasn’t done well.

Now in his fifth season, Turner has hit career-lows in points and rebounds per-36 minutes. Per game, his points, rebounds, assists, and blocks have all declined compared to last season. While Sabonis has been a rising star for the Pacers, Turner seems to have hit a plateau of sorts.

Growth in the NBA, though, is not linear, and we have to look at this plateau (or even dip, if we can call it that) for Turner as a wind-up for a potential step forward next season.

A good amount of the step back is revealed in Turner’s shot profile.

What kind of offensive changes has Indiana Pacers big man Myles Turner undergone in his offensive game?

It comes down to spacing the floor this year for Myles Turner. Turner has taken 44.3 percent of his shots this season beyond the arc after attempting just 25.1 percent from that range last year. In his rookie season, Turner attempted just 2.3 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.

That’s a massive amount of evolution throughout the course of his young career.

Turner has cut out most of his long twos this year. Turner has gone from attempting 24.4 percent from 16 feet to the arc to just 9.1 percent this year.

The only other heavily impacted zone is his shots within three feet of the hoop, dipping from 25.6 percent to 21.1 percent.

Turner has missed 152 3-pointers this season after missing 119 in a full 82-game season last year. He’s also hit 77 this year, one more than he did all of last year.

35.5 percent of his points this season have come from beyond the arc (23.17 percent last season, 20.29 percent the year before). That’s a 15.21 percent increase in where his production is coming from in two years, 12.33 percent of that jump coming this season.

In more simple terms, Turner scored 156 points from the mid-range last year (2.12 points per game). He has scored just 24 points in that zone this year (0.44 points per game). He traded in those shots for 3-pointers, where he scores 4.2 points per game (compared to 3.0 last year).

So Turner has given up 1.68 points in the mid-range to gain 1.20 points in the 3-point range, a net gain of -0.48 between those two zones.

We must consider the mindset of modern NBA defenses, though, and how they’ll guard Turner’s 3-point shot. As long as he hits this at a respectable rate, they’ll come out to the perimeter to guard him which spaces the floor. Though Turner has lost some points, his teammates have gained.

Most notably, Turner attempting more 3-pointers has resulted in a better net rating for the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt.

A sneaky-good part of Turner’s shooting this season has been his shots from within 3-16 feet. His number of attempts in those zones not changed much, but he has improved his accuracy from those areas of the floor.

Last season, he generated 2.4 points in those zones per game on 2.6 shots. This season he generates 2.51 points in that zone on 2.4 shots.

Has Myles Turner had a good shooting year for the Indiana Pacers?

Myles Turner’s shooting this year has been good but not great. We saw his 3-point shooting dip quite a bit due to the increase in attempts as the Pacers redefined their starting lineup and Turner’s role.

Though Turner’s field goal percentage and 3-point percentage have both dipped, his true shooting percentage (which accounts for the greater value of 3-point shots as well as free-throws) has only gone from 56.7 percent last season to 56.1 percent this year.

The value in Turner being willing to miss some 3-pointers to set up a team shot profile that leaves the paint open for Domantas Sabonis is selfless and a net-positive for the team. If Turner can come into next season with an even better 3-point shot, he will score more too, making the Pacers a force to be reckoned with.