Indiana Pacers: Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner pairing shows promise
By Josh Wilson
December was a signal of what can come for Indiana Pacers starting frontcourt
Coming into this season, injecting Sabonis into the starting lineup was great for Sabonis and an adjustment for Turner. We could even suggest that injecting Sabonis into the starting lineup has been great for Sabonis because of the adjustment for Turner.
Turner hasn’t been as good on offense as he usually is. A good amount of that has to do with that aforementioned shot profile adjustment that has pulled him out of the paint to make room for Sabonis. He’s traded in a more persistent conversion rate shot for a less reliable shot that will still pull his defender out to space the floor better.
A big issue is that for much of the season, Turner’s shooting was just that — a threat, not an action. It was only creating for Sabonis, not necessarily creating space and his own offense.
Turner showed just how deadly this pairing could be in December, and it’s an interesting case study to look at when evaluating this duo.
Let’s first look at how many shooting attempts Turner took beyond the arc per game each month this season (3P% and makes per game in parentheses, Turbonis net rating in bold)
- October: 3.75 (53.3% — 2) 3.9
- November: 4.28 (36.7% — 1.57) 5.3
- December: 4.66 (34.3% — 1.6) 11.0
- January: 3.83 (23.9% — 0.92) -0.2
- February: 4.12 (36.0% — 1.5) -3.5
- March: 3.6 (27.8% — 1.0) -5.8
Clearly, there is a correlation between the duo’s net rating and Turner’s 3-point attempts:
Though more data would do us well to prove that there is a correlation, with the few amount of months we’ve seen thus far, clearly more Turner 3-point attempts have made for more fruitful results during this time.
While this could be chalked up to simply a better team output, here’s how each month compared to the team’s net rating each month of the season thus far:
- October: +7.2
- November: -1.9
- December: +9.4
- January: -1.5
- February: -2.8
- March: -4.4
December, again, was the duo’s best month relative to the team.
This small and monthly itemized sample size does not necessarily prove that the improved net rating in December was not due to other team-wide outside circumstances (such as slate of opponents), but it does nail home that December was a great month for the pairing. In raw and relative numbers, it was their most impressive month in minutes they spent together.
What it shows us, too, is that as long as Turner hits 3-pointers at a respectable rate (30 percent seems like a good basement number), this duo will put up positive net ratings so long as the team commits to having Turner shoot the 3-pointer at a high clip.
The effectiveness is in the decoy of the 3-point shot, not the scoring itself.
When Turner makes more of those 3-pointers, the net rating will be even better, but the point of his attempted threes is not necessarily in the points per attempt themselves, but rather the wrinkle it gives the offense and the game planning it forces from the defense.
There’s reason to believe this pairing will be good if the Pacers keep having Turner shoot 3-pointers.