Four ways the Indiana Pacers can reach their ceiling this season

4. Rotation-level production from two of Aaron Holiday, Goga Bitadze, and T.J. Leaf

With Sabonis moving into the starting lineup, the bench has lost its best player. With Cory Joseph leaving in free agency and Tyreke Evans gone as well, much of the bench’s offense from last season is now elsewhere.

What’s left? From last season, Aaron Holiday, Edmond Sumner, T.J. Leaf, and Doug McDermott will be competing early on with newcomers T.J. McConnell, Justin Holiday, JaKarr Sampson, and Goga Bitadze.

As of now, Bitadze and Leaf seem like locks as the reserve frontcourt — alongside McDermott. Justin Holiday will probably be Lamb’s backup. The team likes Aaron Holiday, and having a dual Holiday backcourt on the floor would make many people happy. But Aaron hasn’t proven he can run an NBA offense yet and McConnell probably wasn’t brought on to ride the pine for the whole season.

For this bench unit to survive, the Pacers will probably need two of Aaron Holiday, Leaf, and Bitadze to play at a high level. And really, it needs to be Bitadze and Holiday. While McConnell is a much better passer than Holiday, the lineup will need Holiday’s shooting. Bitadze is the roster’s only backup center, meaning if he struggles to pick things up, the Pacers could be in trouble.

Leaf has had doubters from Day 1 — it was a low-ceiling pick right off the bat and looks even worse considering how much more John Collins (one pick later) and former Indiana Hoosier OG Anunoby (five picks later) have shown thus far.

I understand the concern with Leaf; if he doesn’t make a leap this season, they should probably cut bait with him. He has shown a good feel on the offensive end, however, having a good feel for space and aggressively attacking the rim.

In the two games Leaf played more than 20 minutes in last season, he played well. One was a meaningless end-of-season charade against the Hawks, where Leaf tallied 28 points (12-of-19 shooting) 10 rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocks. The other was a less-meaningless February outing against the Timberwolves in which Leaf scored 18 points in 22 minutes.

It’s only two games, but it’s hard not to believe just a little bit more in Leaf after seeing him for extended stretches like those. He was great shooting at the rim last season, making 75 percent of his attempts (52-of-69), according to Cleaning the Glass. He shot just over half of his shots at the rim.

The concern has been his shooting. Through two seasons, Leaf is shooting 35.6 percent from deep on 0.7 attempts. Lack of opportunity has contributed to the low amount of attempts, but even when Leaf has gotten minutes, he has found more comfort around the rim.

Keeping him around the rim isn’t the worst thing. His personal numbers don’t show it, but he has legitimately good timing on rebounds; the team’s halfcourt offensive rebounding rate jumps dramatically when he’s on the floor and putbacks also increase.

Leaf was drafted as a floor-spacer, however, and the area around the rim will likely be reserved for Bitadze. If he can’t prove to be an NBA-level shooter, he may see himself out of the rotation.

If Leaf can’t make a small leap, that pressure will be shifted onto Holiday and Bitadze. Holiday has upside as a shooter and lengthy defender. If he can do anything offensively outside of spot-up shooting, he will easily have a spot in the Pacers’ rotation.

Bitadze will get run either way, so his play matters more than the other two. It seems likely that he will be able to block shots right away, which will be big for the reserve unit that looks shaky defensively as is. If he can defend the pick-and-roll and hit some 3s on offense, the bench should be propped-up to an average level at least.

Many of these concerns will be resolved once Oladipo returns. The early-season offensive creation, depth, and defensive concerns will mostly vanish with Vic’s re-appearance. Those two or more months without him could be painful, though, unless the four issues discussed here work out in their favor.