Four ways the Indiana Pacers can reach their ceiling this season

2. Malcolm Brogdon becoming a viable creator

After the development of TurBonis, how Malcolm Brogdon plays as the lead guard will be the most fascinating and important storyline for the Pacers this season, pre-Oladipo return.

Playing off of Giannis Antetokounmpo (and Khris Middleton) his first three seasons, Brogdon hasn’t had a ton of opportunity to run his own show offensively. In an offense that will be starved for ball movement, Brogdon will have to prove he can pass for the Pacers’ offense to have a chance at true effectiveness.

Assist percentage is a stat that measures the percentage of assists a player contributes to his team’s total amount of assists. According to Cleaning the Glass, Brogdon’s assist percentage as a rookie was quite good — 23.5 percent, 79th percentile among combo guards.

As an off-ball guard that plays alongside one of the best on-ball scorers in the league, that number is quite good for Brogdon.

The past two seasons, however, it has dropped. In 2017-18, his assist percentage was 16.3 (36th percentile) and last season it was 15.6 (23rd percentile).

Brogdon’s usage rate has risen in that time, suggesting that the drop in assist percentage is likely more tied to role. Brogdon placed behind Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Eric Bledsoe in usage rate last season.

Playing alongside three ball-handlers turned Brogdon into almost a full-time off-ball player. Over 40 percent of Brogdon’s shots last season came off of one or fewer dribbles; 24.2 percent of his shots were catch-and-shoot three-pointers.

Many of these shots were open — 28.6 percent, to be exact, were wide open (six or more feet of space, as per NBA.com stats). Brogdon churned out an effective field goal percentage of 67.3 on those wide-open attempts.

Perhaps the craziest stat of all for Brogdon is this — 81.5 percent of his three-point attempts were wide open. When including “open” shots, meaning he had 4-to-6 feet of room, that includes all but a tiny percentage of Brogdon’s three-point attempts.

Believe it or not, this stat was not an outlier from Brogdon’s time in Milwaukee. In his first two seasons, the vast majority of his three-point attempts were wide open.

In those first two seasons, Brogdon posted an impressive 52.4 and 54.4 effective field goal percentage. Last season, that number jumped to 57.5.

Brogdon’s job was made easy in Milwaukee. Giannis assisted on 44 percent of Brogdon’s three-point makes and was a large factor in getting him so wide open. With Oladipo on the floor, Brogdon won’t see as many easy looks from deep as he had with Giannis and the Bucks.

Without Oladipo, it will be even tougher.

To begin the season, Indiana will have one proven passer in the starting lineup: Domantas Sabonis. Myles Turner and T.J. Warren are below average while Jeremy Lamb is slightly above average.

This will put a fair amount of pressure on Brogdon to prove that his lack of touches and his role as an off-ball shooter were the reasons for his sub-par passing rather than his ability.

Creation doesn’t include just passing, however. Brogdon wasn’t asked to create off-the-dribble either, considering he was stationed on the perimeter so much. When he had to, though, he made it work. He is smart attacking closeouts and is strong and quick enough to get to the rim.

Being able to drive through traffic and finish at the rim is a good sign for Brogdon as an on-ball guard. But until Brogdon proves he can create shots for others at a better rate than he has the past two seasons, the Pacers’ offense could become quite stagnant until Oladipo returns.