Alpha Dog: Can T.J. Warren take the reigns of the Pacers offense?

All this week, we’re analyzing each of the Indiana Pacers starters in Victor Oladipo’s absence to determine who will take the lead role offensively. Today’s candidate: T.J. Warren.

Last season, when Victor Oladipo went down with a ruptured quad tendon, it was Bojan Bogdanovic who stepped up to fill the scoring hole. He finished the season averaging 18 points a game on 13 field goal attempts, both well ahead of the rest of the roster. Now, with Bogey leaving Indiana for Utah, former Phoenix Sun T.J. Warren takes his place at the three spot.

Warren’s no stranger to volume scoring, which makes him one of the more intriguing candidates to take on an alpha role while Oladipo is out for the first half of the year. Both of his past two seasons with the Suns showcased a lot of buckets, with 19.6 PPG on 16.4 FGA in 2017-18 and 18.0 PPG on 14.2 FGA in 2018-19. Each of those performances would outpace Bogdanovic and the rest of the team in terms of volume, so we at least know that Warren has the trigger finger to fill the role.

The main question that arises when looking at his 2019-20 campaign requires the NBA Rosetta Stone: will his offensive prowess translate onto a team with winning aspirations? His scoring totals look excellent on paper (or Basketball Reference for the digital folks out there), but how do we know they’re not empty calories?

A secondary, but just as compelling, question stems from his incredible uptick in three-point shooting last year. Warren shot below 27% from deep in three of his first four seasons in the NBA, never taking more than 1.5 threes a game. This past season, however, he put up an insanely efficient 42.8% on 4.2 threes a game.

His season was also cut short due to injury, meaning his fruitful season comes with the disclaimer of a 43-game sample size. So the question remains: is his three-point shooting sustainable? Was it a fluke? Will he fall somewhere inbetween?

Let’s tackle our main point first. How will offensive skills translate to Indiana? For starters, let’s take a look at his greatest offensive asset: transition scoring. Warren’s instincts off of a turnover or a quick rebound are second to very few in this league, posting 1.28 points per possession on transition opportunities each of his last two seasons.

It isn’t a sample size error, either. He gets about four of these opportunities a game, and they account for over 25% of his scoring total. He’s efficient in volume in transition, and that’s a piece that Indiana needs. No Pacer scored as much as Warren in transition last year, and their most efficient go-to option, Bogdanovic (coincidentally at 1.28 PPP as well), is no longer on the team.

His opportunities may tick down slightly, but not enough to be significant. The Pacers have barely trailed the Suns in transition opportunites (18.7 to 16.3, 19.2 to 17.2) in the past two seasons. And with Oladipo gone for the first half of the season (he led the team with 4.1 transition opportunities last year), Warren should be the first option when pushing down the court.

An interesting development in Warren’s game last year was his improvement in the pick and roll. Warren never eclipsed 0.88 PPP on pick and roll opportunities in his first four seasons in the NBA, but saw a modest improvement in 2018-19, finally reaching a positive 1.02 PPP. It’s not a role where Bogdanovic was featured heavily, but with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner starting (both finished top five in the NBA last year in pick and roll man possessions), it’s bound to be a factor. Seeing improvement last season from Warren is encouraging.

But his real bread and butter is his off-ball movement. You can’t tell me this doesn’t look like a play you’ll see dozens of times this year between Malcolm Brogdon, Turner/Sabonis and Warren:

Warren can find ways to get a bucket with or without the ball, and that makes him a prime candidate to be the alpha dog of the offense. He should be able to slot in Bogey’s role quite nicely. But, can he go toe-for-toe with Bogdanovic’s shooting?

Let’s be upfront about last season’s sample size. He took 180 threes, which is almost double the total of any other season in his career. But still, 180 is a relatively low number in today’s NBA. If six of his made three-point shots had rattled out, he would no longer have been a 40% shooter. That’s how thin the margins are.

But, there is one positive sign in the direction of his newfound shot being more fact than fiction: mechanics. In the off-season before his three-point explosion, Warren, with the help of long-time trainer and friend Trevor West, put up 600 to 700 shots a day.

The main issue was his shooting form. Warren had a habit of twisting his body forward on deep shots, making for a poor follow-through and plenty of bricks. Take this shot from his 2016-17 campaign, and pay attention to his hips.

His right foot juts out quite noticeably, making for an awkward landing and an inconsistent shot. The time he put in in the off-season paid dividends, as he’s settled into a much more comfortable and repeatable up-and-down motion.

And fun fact: after putting up his shots with Trevor West, he’d apply it to game situations in workouts with Trevor’s uncle … David West. Yeah, that one.

West was quite impressed by Warren’s progress, as he told The Athletic early last year.

“I come in and work with him on spots, making sure that he’s comfortable handling the ball in pick and roll, and then I’ll switch things up on the next possession by having him stand in the corner and knock down a 3. He has to be consistent in doing things like catching the ball in transition, and then being able to drive to the elbow and hit a jump shot. Again, it’s all about him being balanced.”

Warren should be able to bring that balance to Indiana next year, as the team finished top five in three-point percentage last season, though with the second-fewest attempts in the league. The open attempts will be there for Warren, and with his improved shot mechanics, it’s feasible to see him once again approach the 40% mark.

The off-season is full of hypotheticals, and Warren surely is one of the Pacers’ biggest. But, there are plenty of positive trends in his favor, and he’s filling a role that already took on the alpha dog spot in Oladipo’s absence last year. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Warren score 20+ a game during the first half of the year, leading the team offensively while Vic is away.