With Victor Oladipo’s return set for December or January, how the Pacers do in free agency will make a major difference in the trajectory of the season.
Victor Oladipo should take all the time he needs to get his knee healthy, that should be the Indiana Pacers first priority when it comes to their franchise player this season. The Pacers acknowledged last week that it isn’t likely for him to return until December or January, meaning the team will have to fight for wins without their best player for nearly half the season.
Last season we saw the Pacers finish the season 16-23 after Oladipo’s knee gave out, and that included the 4-game sweep in the playoffs. While Indiana went 8-4 in Oladipo’s first absence, even a 24-23 record without him on the whole last season hardly inspires confidence that Indiana can be a player in the East without him.
And when you consider Indiana could be without Bojan Bogdanovic (last season’s leading scorer) and defensive studs like Thaddeus Young and Cory Joseph, that makes the task of breaking .500 look even more daunting for Indiana. We saw the Pacers struggle scoring in clutch moments last season without him as it was made evident Indiana need more playmakers on the roster.
Which is why free agency matters more than usual for the Pacers this summer.
Not just because of the obvious reason you need bodies to fill out the roster, but because by the time Oladipo comes back, the team could be almost anywhere in the standings depending on the quality of the free agents added to the roster.
While Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, and Goga Bitadze could make for a solid frontcourt, the backcourt is very reliant on unproven commodities.
T.J. Warren can score, but even with the tanking Phoenix Suns shutting him down last season, it’s worth noting he never played a full season in Phoenix. A broken foot, a head injury, a knee injury, and an ankle injury kept him out of portions of the last few seasons. The Suns might have been tanking and that may have led to him not finishing three of the last seasons, but that still registers as a durability issue.
Doug McDermott is a shooter, but his absence from Nate McMillan’s rotation in the playoffs seems damning. Aaron Holiday saw a decent bit of playing time last year, but not enough to say whether he can handle extended minutes, especially as a starter.
The Kids — Alize Johnson, Edmond Sumner — and T.J. Leaf have yet to see significant playing time, so if they are who Indiana relies on at their given positions, they’ll need to show us something we haven’t seen before from them.
All of this is why free agency matters so much for the Pacers.
If they land a big name like D’Angelo Russell or Tobias Harris, it is much easier to see them weathering the Oladipo-less part of the season. Even if they land more middle of the road names like Ricky Rubio, playing .500 ball is possible.
But if they strike out and fail to land players that are ready to carry the weight of the team in Victor’s absence, then things could get ugly.
If they bring back Young or Bogdanovic or find replacements for them that are on a similar level, then these concerns are moot, but as of now McDermott’s 5 years of NBA experience are the most on the team. Two-way players Devon Reed and Sumner would be the next two oldest on the current roster.
It’s assumed, and rightly so, they won’t be that young and inexperienced, but we don’t’ know exactly who will be filling out the roster at this point and whether they are good enough to keep the ship afloat until Oladipo returns.
Which makes you wonder what sort of team Oladipo might return to. Will the Pacers hold down the fort and run a reverse version of last season, maintaining a middle of the road team of Victor to elevate? Or will there be a major hole they’ll need to dig out of?
It’s hard to project until early July once we have a better idea what Indiana’s rotations might look like. Until then, it’s hard to know how optimistic — or pessimistic — to feel about the Pacers season.