Talen Horton-Tucker symbolizes the Pacers difficulty at picking 18th

Talen Horton-Tucker is a flawed prospect, with a considerable amount of upside. For the Indiana Pacers, he represents the tumulous nature of mid-round picks.

Standing 6’4, weighing 235 pounds, Iowa State’s Talen Horton-Tucker doesn’t sound nearly big enough to play small forward in the NBA as he did in college. Then again, his 7’1 wingspan and youth (won’t be 19 until November) scream of untapped potential. For the Indiana Pacers, this is the dilemma they face picking 18th in the NBA draft. Where’s the middle ground between proven and potential?

No prospect is perfect, even Zion Williamson has flaws. But as you get out of the lottery and near the back-third of the draft, the pros and cons of a player start to balance out more than they do earlier in the draft. That’s where Kevin Pritchard, Chad Buchanan, and the Pacers front office really earn their keep. It’s somewhat easy to pick early on as there’s generally a consensus of who the best players are.

In Horton-Tucker’s case, the fact he can’t shoot is the most obvious one. His 40.6 field goal percentage isn’t pretty no matter how you look at it. Outside of his assists and steals, his stats are between average and less than average.

Then again, you can’t teach defensive instinct and motor of Horton-Tucker, and that 3-point shot does have some promise even if he is shooting 30% on those last season at Iowa State.

But 11.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists a game, even in a conference like the Big 12 aren’t that impressive, if at all.

And then there’s the Wal-Mart incident. Probably youthful stupidity, but when you’re only projected to make 33.4% of your 3-pointers in the NBA, indiscretions are harder to look over. Then again, that defense is above average.

But you get back to his shooting numbers and see that while he shoots 69.4 percent at the rim, he also shoots 21.6% from mid-range and 47.5% inside the arc are troubling. Better who he can dunk with those long arms in the NBA.

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He attacks off the dribble and finds ways to score, but in the NBA, his thicc-ness that he uses to beat down guards may be what allows those smaller players to blow by him. And with his lack of size (but that wingspan!) he is going to have to play guard in the NBA.

All the flaws in his game are why he is 32nd on ESPN’s big board, those flaws are why some mocks have him going in the second round. But then again, his diverse skill set, as imperfect as it is, makes you wonder what he might be in a few years.

Perhaps with some NBA coach, that 3-point shot becomes more reliable. Perhaps within an NBA system, he doesn’t have to push as much and can wait for the shots he can make to come to him. Perhaps those offensive flaws can be covered up enough to let his defense be his calling card.

If you expect a consensus pick this late in the draft, you are looking in the wrong place. If you expect to find a prospect that doesn’t scare you a little, then you probably should trade him for someone more proven.

Maybe the 18th pick is a little too early for him. Maybe the 22nd or 25th is, too. But there’s something about Talen Horton-Tucker that makes you wonder if a late first-round pick could net you a sleeper. Or maybe you look foolish when his offense never develops and he washes out when no team worries about guarding him, especially late in games.

But if he’s a smaller version of Draymond Green in a few years, everyone will be wondering how 32 teams passed on him. I’d like to see him in an Indiana Pacers jersey, but I also wouldn’t want to lose my job over him, either.