8 points, 9 seconds
Fansided

The Pacers should keep their eyes on Nikola Mirotic as free agency approaches

By Jordan Brandenburg

MILWAUKEE, WI - MARCH 17: Nikola Mirotic #41 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers on March 17, 2019 at the Fiserv Forum Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images).
MILWAUKEE, WI - MARCH 17: Nikola Mirotic #41 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers on March 17, 2019 at the Fiserv Forum Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images). /
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Nikola Mirotic #41 of the Milwaukee Bucks
TORONTO, CANADA – MAY 19: Nikola Mirotic #41 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots three point basket against the Toronto Raptors during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2019 NBA Playoffs on May 19, 2019 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Mirotic began the fifth year of his career in New Orleans, among a Pelicans team that not only underwhelmed on the court but dealt with the internal quake of their icon, Anthony Davis.

Playing in 32 games for the Pelicans, Mirotic averaged 16.7 points with a 59.1 true-shooting percentage. For New Orleans, who ranked 24th in shooting from long-range over the season, Mirotic still had the third best 3P% on the roster, converting on 36.8% of his attempts.

After a rebuild seemed inevitable, New Orleans decided to move their forward to Milwaukee in exchange for cap relief and a few 2nd round picks. the fifth-year player molded well with his new team; it was a small surprise that bringing in a deep threat to surround the Greek Freak would increase spacing that not only allowed for high-percentage attempts at the rim from the MVP candidate but also opportunities for catch-and-shoot threes off a pass in the paint.

Over ninety-three percent of Mirotic’s made threes came off a pass from a teammate and 51.8% of his shots were catch-and-shoot. Despite lacking a strong ability to create his own shot, Mirotic is able to use his 6’10” frame to his advantage in getting his attempt over the contesting defender.

In Milwaukee’s system, this was a common sight for the forward they acquired at the deadline; in fact, he possessed the ball for less than two seconds in over seventy-six percent of his shots. In a scheme that requires the front-court to be down in the paint, Mirotic wouldn’t be a good fit. However, when your teams primary ball-handler is 6’11” and relies on getting to the basket, as well as having a center (Brook Lopez) who can knock down threes, standing around the arc waiting on a pass isn’t nearly as stagnating to the offense.

Even though only 26.4% of the stretch-fours shot attempts come from within ten feet of the rim, he is able to knock down these shots at a 64.3% rate. Given his lack of time spent in the paint, Mirotic is able to move around the arc to set a high pick-and-roll. In some cases, the defenders would switch, moving a slower defender to Antetokounmpo or Middleton, for an opportunity at the rim. On the other hand, if Mirotic’s defender decided to go under the screen, he could often roll enough with enough space to find an attempt he liked.

In this next clip, Mirotic highlights his ability to find a spot for a high percentage shot. After setting an off-ball screen, his defender is slow to make the switch and leaves his man with a straight path to an open spot off the left elbow. Lopez is able to slide over to set a screen on the retreating defender, which gives the Bucks forward enough time to cleanly catch the pass and get a shot off.

The playoffs haven’t been as kind to Mirotic’s deep shot. After guard Malcolm Brogdon was sidelined for the beginning of the playoffs, Coach Mike Budenholzer shifted sophomore wing Sterling Brown into the starting lineup. Brown had a tough time combating the Celtics defense at the beginning of the second round and Mirotic was slotted as the starter instead.

Averaging 9.7 points while converting on 40.2% of his attempts, Nikola is down on his 43.9% regular season field goal percentage. Even worse for his role in the offense, he’s shooting just 32.8% from behind the arc, compared to his 36.5.% conversion rate from deep in the regular season.

In his defense, the Bucks long-range weapon fractured his thumb on March 20th and missed the final eleven games of the season. The forward is taking fewer shots and playing less minutes, having not played 20 minutes or more in any of the five first-round games against the Detroit Pistons.

For many players like Mirotic, getting in a rhythm is crucial to shoot consistently for distance. If a lingering thumb injury and limited playing time are factored in, his shooting volatility in a little more understandable.

If Mirotic can’t shoot efficiently from deep, then his role in the offense can become stagnate. He’s not reliable enough to hang in the low block and power his way for a basket and he doesn’t take many free throws. However, he’s been able to step up his defense in the playoffs, netting a 101 defensive rating versus a 109 in the regular season. He currently ranks sixth in defensive win-shares for Milwaukee, who rank first in defensive rating in the playoffs.

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The forward’s length gives him the ability to guard multiple positions. In fact, one-third of his minutes during the playoffs have been at the small forward position.

This ended in Milwaukee’s favor, as the Celtics were the worst shooting team in the second round, only scoring on 41% of their shot attempts and 30.7% from three. Coach Budenholzer has been having the Bucks big men collapse back into the paint on picks, willing to give open threes above the break.

Given the Bucks cap situation that will be magnified following the playoffs, it’s likely Mirotic has only a handful of games left in a Milwaukee uniform. With Thaddeus Young as an unrestricted free agent, and a level of uncertainty on whether Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner can play consistent minutes together, should the 6’10” shooter be a serious consideration for Indiana?

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