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Let’s rethink the Indiana Pacers trading Darren Collison idea

By Jonathan Matthes

SACRAMENTO, CA - DECEMBER 1: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on December 1, 2018 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - DECEMBER 1: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on December 1, 2018 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 31: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers shoots the ball against the New York Knicks on October 31, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 31: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers shoots the ball against the New York Knicks on October 31, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /

The difference between a slump and a regression

Darren Collison has played in 659 games since he began his professional career. Over the course of those hundreds of games, Collison has established a general pattern for how he plays, as all players do.

In the early stages of his career, he was more combustible. Good game here, dud there. Eventually, his skills will recede as age robs him the edge that has kept him effective in the Association as long as he has been. But what we know from the totality of his work is this: Darren Collison is a talented point guard who thrives directing an offense, setting up teammates and spacing the floor with an accurate three-point shot. He provides leadership, and while not a brick wall defensively, he’s adept at pouncing on passing lanes. That’s his pattern, that’s his mean.

The great numbers he put up last year exceeded those baselines, but not by as much as you would think. Collison was incrementally improving his numbers each season before his career year in 2017-18. Compare that to what he did to begin this year, there was no gradual descent that players generally see when they age. There was no recent precedent for his mediocre production. Collison’s numbers plummeted to entirely unprecedented levels. That’s not a regression, it’s something else entirely.

If Collison regressed to his mean, he would have been shooting around 40% from three, while scoring about a dozen points, and dishing five assists for every two turnovers he committed. Instead, he began 2018-19 shooting 33% from three, while scoring barely nine points per game, and dishing two assists per every turnover. His mean was significantly better than his production.

This leads to three possibilities. The first possibility is that he was injured or sick. If he was – he gave no indication. The second one is that the monstars from Space Jam slipped into an Indiana Pacers practice, while Homer Simpson watched on, and stole Collison’s talent. Or third, he was in a slump.

Slumps are unpredictable, a consistent string of underachievement for an athlete (or whatever). They defy historical precedents. Mike Trout just can’t seem to time up a fastball. Sarah the real estate closer just can’t seem to close a deal. Lionel Messi can’t find the back of the net. Daniel Day-Lewis has a string of weak movies. Darren Collison is a below average basketball player. The good news about slumps is that they do end, and when they do the slumper’s production typically progresses back to their mean.

Exactly like Collison’s production has over the last three weeks. Why this eight-game stretch matters more than “just a small sample size” is because all his recent numbers fit with who he is as a basketball player. While he’s likely not going to be slinging 17 assists every given night, Collison protecting the ball and setting up teammates fits his billing. While 4.5 rebounds a game is high, that also points to how he’s been more aggressive attacking missed shots. All of his shooting percentages have risen to the ballpark of reasonable expectations, except his general field goal percentage, which one could likely conclude will soon rise in time. It took 20 games, but it looks like Darren Collison has returned to his typical form.

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