2. Indiana’s sticky fingers
Defense is difficult to grade, but by most standards, Indiana has been very good this season. While no team regularly holds teams to under 100 points, only Memphis (102.0) allows fewer points per game than the Pacers (102.2). For further perspective the league average is 110.6 – Indiana is allowing 8.4 points per game less than the league average.
Indiana is also the third-best team in the league when it comes to thievery (Indiana 9.2 steals per game, first place OKC has 10.6). The Pacers have the eighth best defensive rebounding percentage (74%, league-leading Milwaukee has 76.5). They have the fourth best defensive rating (just a point behind the Thunder). And Indiana is the league leader is disallowing opponent points in the paint (40.1). Add up all of that, and Indiana is firmly in the conversation for the best team defense in the league.
To be the devil’s advocate to my own article for a second, you can raise your hand to object to a couple points. First, something that helps the Indiana Pacers prevent scoring is that they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. We’ve already talked about how playing a slow pace doesn’t mean you’re actually playing slowly, rather it means that you’re playing fewer possessions per game than “faster” teams. Which is true, playing a slower pace means that the opponent has fewer opportunities to score. Although that hasn’t helped the Cleveland Cavaliers, who play at the third slowest pace and allow the seventh most points.
Second, one of the reasons that Indiana gets so many defensive rebounds and allows so few points in the paint is because NBA teams have resorted to shooting threes over the Pacer defense. Only Atlanta barely (by 0.1) allows opponents to shoot a higher percentage from deep than the Pacers do. And Atlanta is awful.
Part of the reason for that is that Indiana’s swarming defense is stout enough that teams feel they have a better chance finding an open look by avoiding the paint, which is a credit to Myles Turner‘s rim protection. It also highlights an area for improvement moving forward. Indiana has most of the defense-thing down, but they need to protect the three-point line better.
3. Slumping Collison
Darren Collison is not shooting well. Never in his professional career has Collison averaged less than 10.4 ppg, this year he’s at 8.9, which is a good name for a website but not great for a starting point guard who’s career average is 12.5. The only time he’s shot worse than his current 44.4 FG% was during the final year of his first stint in Indiana seven years ago. He’s one of the many Pacers who is having substandard performances from the free throw line. It’s not good.
Before we talk about his three-point shooting, here’s this. The phrase “regress to the mean” is used too much and wrongly on a lot on blogs. It’s liberally used whenever a player plays worse than what he had been doing either earlier in the year or in the season before. To regress, in basketball and everything, means an outperforming entity has receded to its typical performance level. Someone can also progress to the mean.
Anyway, I say that to say this: Darren Collison’s three-point shooting has not regressed this season. That would be a compliment. His shooting has been disastrous. For three straight years, Collison shot above 40% from three, the mark of an elite shooter. Never in his career has he shot worse than 33% (which is below average by today’s standards). For his career, he’s a 39% three-point shooter (well above average). Collison is currently shooting 31.0% from three, which is bafflingly worse than his league-best 46.8% from a year ago.
If things level off, his shooting should come up as the season progresses. He’s never shot this inaccurately in his professional life. But Collison is not the only Pacer starter misfiring from the field. Thaddeus Young is also doing two things he hasn’t done in forever. He has not scored this few points per game (9.9) since his rookie year in 2007-08 (8.2). Additionally, his 17.4 3-point% is the lowest mark he’s posted in six seasons. It’s actually surprising that his 17.4% has precedent. Both Collison and Young should (law of averages here) see their numbers improve. But it’s going to keep holding back the team until they do.