Who cares about pace of play?

Pace of play. You’ve probably heard about it recently, mostly because the Indiana Pacers pace is not all that quick by NBA standards. But the real question is: does pace of play mean much, if anything, at all?

The Indiana Pacers are not the slowest team in the NBA, but they’re close to it. Only Memphis plays at a slower pace (94.9 possessions per game) than the Pacers do (96.4). Which means…something, I guess. If you watch any Pacers broadcast, or read most Pacers blogs, or follow Pacers twitter, “pace of play” has been a popular bugaboo these days. Like this:

https://twitter.com/JoliverDaniels/status/1060577306295578625

And this:

https://twitter.com/HeavonHoops/status/1058866117618401282

And more:

I get it, we’ve all done it. You hear some smart person somewhere throw out a stat like, hypothetically, that the Indiana Pacers play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, you just can’t help but regurgitate it everywhere. I get it, it sounds very insightful. Any idiot can point out that the Pacers 72 missed free throws is problematic, but you’re the keeper of the lack of pace of play wisdom.

Here’s the thing: a fast pace of play doesn’t equate to good basketball.

Over the last decade, the team that leads the NBA in pace has won the championship once (it was Golden State in 2015). Only four times has the eventual NBA Champion finished even in the top five in pace. Average the last ten champions together and their pace of play, is, well, pretty average (12th). The 2016 Cavaliers were even the fourth slowest team in the league that year. It’s much more common for the fastest team in the NBA to be one of the worse teams (six of the fastest paced teams in the last decade won fewer than 30 games during their first-place pace season) than a better one (only three with a winning record).

How is that possible?

“Pace of play” is a measurement not of team speed (or quality), but rather the calculation of how many possessions a particular team has in any given game. The more possessions a team has the quicker their pace. It’s not a statistic of quality, but rather quantity. And quicker doesn’t necessarily mean better. For example, look at this clip below:

And compare it to this one:

The first clip is obviously better, right? The offense is flowing, involving everyone, working the defense for the best shot. Well, offensive possessions like that will lower your pace of play because you’ll have fewer possessions. Take a look at the bottom one again. Non-possessions like that will increase a team’s pace of play, but it’s clearly a bad play.

Of course, not all “fast” teams are run-and-brick offenses. The Milwaukee Bucks are the fifth fastest and are off to a very good start. Sacramento is the fastest team, off to a better-than-expected start but still just barely above .500. The Hawks (3-8), Pelicans (5-6) and Lakers (5-6) are the other top five teams. The disastrous Wizards are playing at the eighth fasted pace. The dominant Warriors are the tenth fastest. Add all of this up and you get our point: bad, good and average teams can play at a quick pace; but playing at a quick pace doesn’t make a team bad, good or average.

Now, about those free throws…