The Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are sixth because of their stability. The Heat return virtually their entire roster from the 44-win unit of a year ago.
Naturally, there are positives and drawbacks to this. A positive: the roster is loaded with good to very good players that could find rotation spots (at worst) on nearly every other team.
That’s even true for the petulant Dion Waiters and the expensive (and likely peaked) Hassan Whiteside. All the Heat rotation players could be effective in the right role. Another positive, they have one all-star (point guard Goran Dragic), another potential all-star (Josh Richardson) and a third youngster who looks like a less-crazy version of Ron Artest (Justise Winslow).
Erik Spoelstra is too good a coach, and the roster has too many self-made men to let this team falter too far. But they also have their limitations.
The negative is that the Heat return virtually their entire roster from the 44-win unit of a year ago. At the moment of this writing, they are still a superstar-less ensemble that will resiliently preserver into the playoffs before being escorted out of the first round by whichever superior team they play. Erik Spoelstra is too good a coach, and the roster has too many self-made men to let this team falter too far. But they also have their limitations.
In summary, the Heat will rise and fall in the standings more by the machinations of others than by their own successes and failures. If teams more talented then they self-combust or fall apart from injuries the Heat will respectfully take their place. If everyone else is good with minimal struggles, the Heat will not be able to keep their pace.
There is one big caveat though. If an acceptable arraignment of Miami’s good players can be assembled, and a star can be acquired (like say a disgruntled two-guard in Minnesota) that will only change the Heat’s fortunes for the better.