Assessing the Indiana Pacers’ Divisional opponents: Milwaukee Bucks

In this series, we will examine all of the Indiana Pacers central division opponents. In this part of the series, we look at this Milwaukee Bucks.

Divisions don’t really matter in the NBA. Unlike the MLB and NFL, division winners aren’t guaranteed playoff spots. That’s the way it should be. However, the Indiana Pacers will see their Central Division-mates more times than any other teams. The Central is the only division in the East where all five teams could legitimately make the playoffs (Bucks, Cavs, Pistons, Bulls), which may not even be a testament to the strength of the division, rather, the weakness of the conference. For the first time since 2014, it seems like the Pacers are the best team in the Central Division. First, we dive into the next best team in the division, the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Milwaukee Bucks

The likely second best team in the Central, the Milwaukee Bucks boast the best player in the Central Division in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freek is a bona fide superstar, with every weapon in his arsenal aside from a consistent three-point shot. Last season, he averaged a staggering 26.9 points, 10 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks.  He ranked sixth in the NBA in win shares (11.9) and tenth in box plus-minus (5.8).

Khris Middleton is a very solid second option for Milwaukee; he’s an excellent three-point shooter, defender, and an improving creator for himself and for his teammates. Middleton averaged 20.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and four assists last year. He had a down year from the three-point line (35.9%) compared to his 2017 percentage of 43.3%. The fringe All-Star should be expected to carry a large load this season.

The Bucks have some solid role players in free-agent signing Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, and Thon Maker. Lopez should space the floor well for Antetokounmpo, Bledsoe is a very athletic, defensive-minded point, and Brogdon is a solid spacer and creator. Maker has flashed immense potential with his rim protecting and shot making but is still very raw.

The Milwaukee Bucks lost their third best player in Jabari Parker to the Bulls in this offseason. He is a talented scorer but can’t seem to stay healthy and is slow footed on the defensive end.

Every season, many NBA fans project the Bucks as the next “breakout” team, the next team to take the next step in becoming a contender. Yet, almost poetically, they never seem to reach this zenith. The Bucks have a very talented roster but haven’t been able to put their talent together to create wins. The Eric Bledsoe trade last season was questionable, as Bledsoe seems to be declining and doesn’t provide adequate spacing. However, the Bucks brought in an excellent head coach in Mike Budenholzer who may be able to provide the Bucks with the culture they need to take the next step.

Stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo is the number one key to the Indiana Pacers beating the Bucks on any given night. Victor Oladipo is an excellent on-ball defender but lacks the size to contain Antetokounmpo. Thaddeus Young has the size but lacks the quickness. The Pacers need to use a team-oriented approach to stop Giannis.

Leaving Giannis Antetokounmpo, a 30.7% three-point shooter, open, is one of the best ways to defend him. Keeping him out of the paint stifles his production:

Thaddeus Young is the best option that the Indiana Pacers have when it comes to guarding Antetokounmpo. His strength, IQ, and tenacity help keep him in front. Here, Young slides his feet, doesn’t bite on the fakes, and puts his hands straight up. Not only that, but the defense is clogging the middle here against a poor three-point shooting lineup. This is a perfect example of how to defend an Antetokounmpo drive.

However, after the shot goes up, someone has to get a body on Antetokounmpo. He is too good a rebounder to leave unaccounted:

Sometimes, no matter what you do, you just can’t guard Giannis. Indiana Pacers legend Lance Stephenson is physical, slides his feet, stays low, and contests the step-back fadeaway without fouling. Still, Antetokounmpo will hit these shots. He’s just too good. After he hits these, the Pacers must not become distraught:

In order to defend Antetokounmpo, the Pacers will want to turn to the Celtics’ film against the Bucks in the first round. The Celtics don’t have any wings with the defensive ability or size to guard Giannis, like most. Brad Stevens elected to put Al Horford and Aron Baynes on Giannis Antetokounmpo which worked marvelously. Horford and Baynes’ strength and defensive IQ allowed him to contain Antetokounmpo in the paint and he left him space to make up for his deficit in quickness. Combine that with some excellent team defense and you have the formula to contain Antetokounmpo:

These three plays are great examples of the Celtics forcing Giannis into the shots that they want him to take. By having their bigs sag off, stay in front, and contest without fouling, the Celtics can force Giannis into bad shots, neutralizing his impact.

The Pacers should employ this same strategy with Myles Turner being the primary defender on Antetokounmpo. Turner isn’t the defender that Horford is, but he is more athletic and a better rim protector. He should be able to execute the same defensive strategy that the Celtics used to beat the Bucks in a playoff series.

The Bucks have the potential to be a top defensive team in the NBA. Last season, they finished a pedestrian 17th in defensive rating (107.1). However, they have the potential to be a top-10 defensive team and could provide trouble for the Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmmpo can guard anybody in the NBA. Khris Middleton is good enough on defense to bother Victor Oladipo. Eric Bledsoe has the athleticism and tools to be an excellent defensive point guard on the defensive end. A great coach in Budenholzer could be the key to unlock their defensive potential.

The most exploitable link on the Bucks’ roster is the center position. Brook Lopez is a noted defensive liability. He is slow footed, weak, and isn’t a threat in rim protection. Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis should be major factors in the Pacers’ gameplan any time they face the Bucks. Their inside game, playmaking, and floor spacing should allow them to be mismatches on the offensive side of the ball. The Bucks match up well against the Pacers and will make for a great game every time the two teams square up. They will be the toughest divisional opponent.