Second-Round picks don’t usually amount to much, but Alize Johnson could be different. Could he be a diamond in the rough?
Drafting in the second round of the NBA Draft is in many ways a game of Yahtzee. You roll the dice and hope something aligns. Many draft picks are looked at for their potential, but second rounders typically won’t impact a team in their first year. That being said, the low-risk setting can, and has, produced several All-Stars and significant role players in recent years (think Draymond Green, Marc Gasol, or Lance Stephenson).
The Indiana Pacers hope they found their diamond in the rough during the second round of Thursday’s NBA Draft in 6’9 Forward Alize Johnson. Johnson, 22, comes out of Missouri State as a wing/college big man hybrid, competing in the underrated Missouri Valley Conference.
(On that last note, I will not be taking the opportunity to discuss how we undervalue mid-major basketball, not during my first article on 8 Points, 9 Seconds. Most of you haven’t even decided if you like me yet).
Moving on…Alize Johnson played a very significant role as a starter on MSU and averaged over thirty minutes a game in both of his seasons for the Bears. During these efforts, he managed to lead the conference in rebounding both seasons and finished fifth in the NCAA with 11.6 boards a game last year. Let’s take a closer look.
Strengths
1. Rebounding
This pick seems pretty obvious when you look at Johnson’s rebounding statistics. This is an area the Pacers struggled mightily in towards the end of the season, specifically when one of Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis were injured. Johnson finished his MSU career with 11.1 rebounds per game with over three of those coming from the offensive variety. Percentage-wise, Johnson reeled in over 21 percent of all rebounds while he was on the floor. For perspective, Sabonis (the Pacers leading rebounder) finished last year at 17.8 percent. Granted, the NBA is much harder to wrestle boards in, but the point remains the same: Johnson is an efficient and effective rebounder.
2. Ball-Handling
This was actually a surprise to me and might be to you as well. Being 3000 percent honest, I was not aware of Alize Johnson until the Pacers worked him out prior to the draft. For his positioning, he moves around the court remarkably well and is not afraid to put the ball on the floor. He just hustles to the ball.
Take a look at one of his highlight reels from his Junior season.
This comes as a breath of fresh air to the rebounding core of the Pacers. Someone that can pull down off the glass and start their own transition game is a nice commodity to have. This rings painfully true when you realize Al Jefferson moves like Dial-Up Internet off the bench.
3. Passing
His assist-to-turnover ratio wasn’t exactly Rondo-esque at 1.27, but Johnson did distribute 94 assists over his last season. That number was up from just 63 the year before. This leads me to believe that his passing game is still developing and very well could improve on a good passing Pacers team.
Weaknesses
1. Perimeter Shooting
Alize Johnson’s Junior season ended with an almost 39 percent mark from downtown. When asked to create more as a Senior, it was evident that more shots did not equal better results. His percentage dipped to 28 percent in 2018. Mechanically, he simply takes too long to shoot. Defenses noticed this and were able to adjust. If not addressed, his three-point percentage is going to get swallowed in the NBA. The guys are just quicker and stronger. His true shooting percentage hung around 53 percent last year, so he is capable of scoring more than one way. But a lot of his success on offense will be dependant on if Johnson can hit this outside shot.
2. Strength
He struggled offensively in traffic, as seen in the video above. This seems to be a reoccurring theme in the Pacers front-court. The NBA is a different world and a different pace. The Pacers will need Johnson to get into the weight room and add more to his 200 lb frame. At 22, he does not have a few years to get acclimated to the league the same way Turner and Sabonis did. He needs to be cut, and he needs to do it fast.
3. Consistency
His efficiency lacked his senior year and he looked like he took a step back offensively. While his point totals stayed almost identical (14.8 in 2017, 15.0 in 2018), his volume increased significantly (10.5 FGA in 2017, 12.1 in 2018). This happened with an easier schedule as well compared to the year before (1.18 strength of schedule in 2017, 0.45 in 2018). I don’t believe that he regressed talent-wise, I think it was a mixture of an expanded role mixed with a lack of a consistent approach that caused him to flounder. His decision-making will improve and hopefully level out his consistency issues.
Pro Comparison
Trevor Booker
If we are looking at Pacers comparisons here, a lot of his game reflects that of Trevor Booker. Statistically, Booker’s per 36 minutes point and rebound totals stood at 12.2 and 10.3 last year while Johnson’s per 40 minutes stood at 19.3 and 14.9. Booker also has a knack for offensive boards as his offensive rebound percentage was 13.5 last year as a Pacer. Johnson’s? 12.2 percent during his college career. Johnson’s ball-handling skills are miles better than Booker’s off the dribble, while Booker has the strength and consistency advantage. That being said, I could see the Pacers using Johnson in a similar role to the one Booker had this past season. If the Pacers can get the same bulldog attitude out of Johnson that they have from Booker, he could very well carve out a niche on this team.
Bottom Line
Second round picks are hard to forecast. You don’t need a Ph.D. or a random blogger named Jesse to tell you that. There is a lot to like in Alize Johnson, from his rebounding ability to his high octane swagger. He is extremely raw and will have to improve his consistency and his efficiency. There have been glimpses of them in the past, but it’s up to the Pacers to harness them. The reps he will get in the summer are important but remember not to overstate their value. Joe Young set the world on fire just a few summers ago…
Next: What exactly does Aaron Holiday offer the Indiana Pacers?
There is some game there and he is excited to be here. He’s a hard-working player and has a great opportunity to learn under some other young, exciting talent. That is enough for me for right now.
(Statistics via sports-reference.com, video via DraftExpress channel on YouTube)
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