The Pacers will be the fifth seed in the postseason. But we won’t know their Eastern Conference playoff opponent until tonight.
Who do you want the Pacers first-round playoff opponent to be? The Philadelphia 76ers? Or the Cleveland Cavaliers?
We will find out tonight, as both teams are in action with playoff seeding on the line. The Indiana Pacers are currently locked into their fifth-place spot in the conference, with the Cavaliers occupying fourth and the 76ers third. That could all change this fateful evening.
The Cavs are 50-31 while the Sixers are 51-30. A win by the Sixers locks them into the third seed. But a loss by Philly and a win by Cleveland would give the teams identical records, and the Cavaliers would have the tiebreaker over the 76ers thanks to their Central Division title. So it is possible for the Cavs to get the three seed and for an Indiana-Philadelphia first-round series. Let’s break down both teams games and see what is at stake.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers host the Knicks in a rematch of a game that happened on Monday in New York. The Cavaliers won that game 123-109. FiveThirtyEight gives Cleveland an 87 percent chance of winning this game.
This one is pretty simple. The Knicks have 28 wins and have been tanking ever since Kristaps Porzingis went down with a knee injury. If the Knicks lose and the Brooklyn Nets win tonight, the Knicks will jump them in the lottery standings and will have a better chance at the first overall pick. So, the Knicks will not be attempting to win.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers want to lock up the third seed so they can avoid the Toronto Raptors and instead play the banged-up Celtics in round two. Cleveland will be trying to win this game so that they can move up in the standings. This one seems like an easy Cavs win, but you never know.
Philadelphia
The 76ers play host to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Bucks currently sit as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. FiveThirtyEight gives the 76ers a 75 percent chance of winning, but this game has a ton of layers, so let’s get to it.
For Philly, the motivation is simple: win and avoid the Cavaliers or Raptors until the conference finals. They want this game, and they want it bad. But there are some challenges. First of all, they are playing on a back-to-back, and they were in Atlanta last night. That game against the Hawks went wire to wire, so the Sixers could be tired after all that travel.
Second, the team is banged up. Joel Embiid is out, Ben Simmons is sick, and Dario Saric left last nights game with an injury. The Sixers may want to win, but it is challenging when you the roster is shallow.
The final challenge is that they play the Bucks, who will be incredibly motivated.
The Bucks are in a weird spot. They could have an “easier” first-round opponent if they lose this game since Boston is so banged up. However, Milwaukee has some interesting draft ramifications to pay attention to tonight.
Milwaukee acquired Eric Bledsoe from the Suns this season, and in doing so they traded away a first-round pick. The Suns only get that pick this season if it lands between 11 and 16. Where does Milwaukee currently sit? 17. So, a loss could grant the Bucks an easier playoff opponent, but in the process, they would lose their first-round draft pick entirely. Is that worth it? Probably not. So the Bucks will be trying to win this game, and that could be the reason that the Cavs and Sixers switch spots in the standings.
What are the Odds?
If you look at the two games, there are four outcomes involving a combination of two teams winning: Cavs/Sixers, Cavs/Bucks, Knicks/Sixers, and Knicks/Bucks. The Pacers will play the Cavaliers in the first round in every scenario outside of Cavs/Bucks. So what are the chances of each matchup?
If you use FiveThirtyEight’s odds (Cleveland 87 percent chance of winning, Milwaukee 25 percent chance of winning) it shakes out that the Pacers have a 21.75 percent chance of facing Philadephia in the first round and a 78.25 percent chance of squaring off with Cleveland.
Next: Season recap: The Pacers key to success? Working hard in the summer
So, now you know the situations and the odds. Who the Pacers would rather play is up for debate, but you can decide for yourself who you would rather see Indiana face off with. Root for whichever outcome you desire.