Pacers potential playoff opponents preview: Washington Wizards

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 17: Indiana Pacers guard Victor Oladipo (4) scores against Washington Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (12) on March 17, 2018 at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. The Washington Wizards defeated the Indiana Pacers, 109-102. (Photo by Icon Sportswire)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 17: Indiana Pacers guard Victor Oladipo (4) scores against Washington Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (12) on March 17, 2018 at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. The Washington Wizards defeated the Indiana Pacers, 109-102. (Photo by Icon Sportswire)
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Myles Turner Marcin Gortat Wizards Pacers
WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 4: Myles Turner

CENTER

Matchup: Wizards: Marcin Gortat v Pacers: Myles Turner

Advantage: Draw.

Analysis: This one’s tough, it depends on which Myles Turner shows up. Gortat is a rather consistent player. You pretty much know what you’re getting from him every night. He’s grabbed between five and nine rebounds 48 times this year. He’s scored ten or fewer points 45 times, although he’s jumped into double-figures 31 times. He rarely jumps too high (he’s been over 20 only once). He’s a steady presence. Turner isn’t.

If Turner plays like “I’m NOT soft!” Turner then he’ll overwhelm Gortat. But if Turner plays less aggressively Gortat’s physicality will win the day. And that’s what it comes down to, which Turner shows up. Since March, both versions of Turner has shown up in equal parts. Basketball Reference has this nifty thing called a “game score”, which they describe as: “Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game.”

Since March began, Turner has had eight games with a game score over ten, and eight games under ten. Ten, my friends, is an average game. As you’ll see below, the difference is staggering.

 Avg GmScr 10+ gms 16.8 PPG 18.9 FG% 55.3 3PM/3PA (%) 14/30 (46.7) REB 8
  Avg GmScr -10 gms 4.8 PPG 7.6 FG% 37.4 3PM/3PA (%) 1/7 (14.3) REB 4.9

Turner has posted all-star caliber numbers in roughly half the games since March began, but he’s been pedestrian in the other half. Which Myles shows up? That decides the matchup here.