Early signs point toward Victor Oladipo being the frontrunner for the Most Improved Player Award. However, the Most Valuable Player award may not be as far out of reach as you think.
Pretty much everyone who follows the Indiana Pacers or the NBA closely knows that Victor Oladipo is the frontrunner for the Most Improved Player (MIP) award. His transformation from a decent play finisher that plays solid defense to an offensive leader and initiator, seemingly overnight, has been magical. He took his scoring average from 16.9 points to game to 24.9, his assists have jumped from 2.6 per game to 3.9, and his rebounds, steals, and blocks are all up substantially over last season.
Combine his per game statistical improvements with his stylistic improvements, some significant increases in shooting percentage, and lockdown perimeter defense, and there is no question that Victor Oladipo is one of, if not the, most improved basketball player this season.
But his injury has sparked a new narrative. The Pacers are 0-4 without Oladipo and 19-14 with him, displaying clearly that he is incredibly valuable when it comes to winning basketball games. Combine that with his current monstrous statistics and the question transforms; is Victor Oladipo a Most Valuable Player candidate?
Last years MVP, Russell Westbrook, had a historic season and acquired many accolades. One of the biggest arguments in favor of his MVP case was his on/off splits. When Westbrook was on the court, the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder had a net rating of +3.3. When he sat on the bench, -OKC had a net rating of -8.9. That means that team was 12.2 points per 100 possessions better with Russell Westbrook on the court.
Let’s compare that to Oladipo this season. With the star guard on the court, the Indiana Pacers have a net rating of +5. When he’s out? -7. The Pacers are 12 points per 100 possessions better with Vic on the court than off, right in line with Westbrook’s impact from last season.
To fully grasp how large a gap 12 points per 100 possessions is; consider this. The Houston Rockets net rating is exactly 12 points higher than the Atlanta Hawks. 12 points are huge and separate contenders and bottom feeders. That represents Oladipo’s impact.
To quantify it even further, let’s use some statistical modeling. This summer, Jacob Goldstein wrote an article for Nylon Calculus outlining a model that quantifies a players chance at MVP given his stats. Plugging in Victor Oladipos current numbers gives him an MVPScore of 15.9 percent, good for 15th in the league:
MVPScore does not represent a players chance of winning MVP, but rather the chances that the stat line a player has would lead to them being the league MVP in a vacuum. Here is the current list, with Oladipo currently ranked 15th:
What the model does not calculate is narrative, which Oladipo has in his favor. His large improvement, combined with his newly acquired leadership and his on/off splits certainly help his narrative and may propel him slightly higher than 15th overall. Check out Jacob’s article, which is linked above, for more information. He goes into more detail and explains everything in an easy to grasp manner.
Will he be the 2017-18′ NBA Most Improved Player award recipient? Probably. Will Victor Oladipo be the 2017-18′ NBA Most Valuable Player? Probably not, but he is way closer than you think.
Next: Damien Wilkins: Should he stay or should he go?
If he improves with age, we could be having more MVP discussions in future years. Who cares about awards, though. Let’s enjoy Oladipo and his ability to lead the Indiana Pacers to Victory.