Indiana Pacers Preview Series: The Central Division

MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 04: John Henson #31 of the Milwaukee Bucks jumps against Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers to start a preseason game at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on October 4, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 04: John Henson #31 of the Milwaukee Bucks jumps against Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers to start a preseason game at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on October 4, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 9: Stanley Johnson, Henry Ellenson and Luke Kennard.
DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 9: Stanley Johnson, Henry Ellenson and Luke Kennard. /

DETROIT PISTONS

2016-17 Record: 37-45, 5th in Central, 10th in the East

Projected Starters: PG Reggie Jackson, SG Avery Bradley, SF Tobias Harris, PF Jon Leuer, C Andre Drummond. Rotation: Stanley Johnson, Ish Smith, Luke Kennard, Henry Ellenson, Eric Moreland, Langston Galloway. Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy 484-341, 3rd year in Detroit. Avg core age: 24.6.

The Pistons should make the playoffs this year. They should. They really should. Avery Bradley brings balance to a starting lineup that feature two key players who were notoriously inconsistent last year: Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Detroit was the worst shooting team in the NBA a year ago, so they selected Luke Kennard in the Draft, added free agent Langston Galloway, and Henry Ellenson finally has a year under his belt. Plus three teams that finished above Detroit underwent gigantic roster overhauls this offseason. So they should move up just by default.

But…

With less than a week before the season, Stan Van Gundy still isn’t certain what his starting lineup will be. Their best backcourt players (Bradley and Jackson) have barely played together because of injures. They’re hopeful about their bench, but no one else is. Oh, and Drummond definitely didn’t look like a franchise cornerstone they once thought him to be.

Drummond’s case is interesting. 2016 looked like a breakthrough season, he posted a 16/15 (points/rebounds) season and the Pistons made the playoffs. Last year his stats slipped to 14/14 and Detroit slipped out of the postseason. That might seem insignificant, however, He’d seen his stats improve in each of his first four season, and the fear is that he’s already peaked. Drummond also posted a disastrous -6.3 net rating last year, puncturing the theory that he was a good defender.

That said maybe a rebound isn’t that far away. Drummond did lead the league in defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He also shot a career best on field goals 0-10 feet away from the rim. His average shooting distance was 4.4 feet, which was over a foot further than his career average. Theoretically, if they could get him opportunities deeper in the post his scoring numbers will increase too. Plus the man is only 24, his prime should still be 3 years off. Drummond could still get better.

If he does improve so will the Pistons and they could finish as high as fifth in the East. If he doesn’t improve, or just plays like he did last year, Detroit could also miss the playoffs for the eighth this decade.