Just Win, Baby: The Indiana Pacers Path to the Playoffs
By Ben Gibson
The Indiana Pacers need to win out to guarantee their spot in the playoffs, but that means they control their own destiny in getting there.
The Indiana Pacers regained control of their playoff hopes when the Toronto Raptors beat the Miami Heat last night, putting the Heat a game behind the Pacers with only three games left.
The updated odds on PlayoffStatus.com show the Pacers with a 53% chance of grabbing the 8th seed, but more importantly, they now control their own destiny.
For what it is worth, Playoff Status also gives Indiana a 14% shot for the 7th seed, and equal 6% chances for both the 6th and 5th seeds in the Eastern Conference. That leaves Indiana with just a 21% chance of missing out on the postseason.
For Indiana (39-40), it is simple. They must stay ahead of the Heat (38-41) in the standings. Winning the next three games is the best way to do that.
As you can see from the table above, the Pacers are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls (39-40) record-wise, but the tie-breakers drop Indiana behind them. Indiana is only a game behind the Milwaukee Bucks (40-39), but again, tie-breakers mean Indiana must finish with a better record to jump them in the standings. The only team Indiana could possibly get a tie-breaker is the Atlanta Hawks, but they’ll need to beat them in the final game of the regular season for that to happen.
The Best and Worse Case Scenarios for the Indiana Pacers
If the Pacers beat the Orlando Magic and the Washington Wizards beat the Miami Heat, Indiana’s chances of grabbing the 8th seed jump to 55%. In that scenario, Indiana still has a 22% chance at the 7th seed, while their chances for 6th and 5th will both stand a 10%, thanks to a mix of tie-breaker scenarios. That means Indiana’s chances missing the playoffs drop to 4% with a win and help from Wizards today.
In a worse case scenario where the Pacers lose to the Magic and the Wizards lost to the Heat, Indiana’s chances of missing the playoffs would shoot up to 59%. Once again, that is thanks to the tie-breaker issues with the Heat.
There are a few ways the Pacers can get locked out of the 5th and 6th seeds this weekend, but they mostly involve Indiana and the Bucks losing and considering they are playing the Magic and Philadelphia 76ers today, that doesn’t seem too likely.
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If Indiana wins out, they are in, but two wins can also all but assure them of a spot in the post season with some help.