If Jeff Teague Really Can Shoot Now, It’s a Game Changer

It’s debatable whether Jeff Teague is an upgrade over George Hill at the point guard spot. Sports Illustrated’s rankings would have you believe the Indiana Pacers lost out on the deal. But more than one guy being discernibly better than the other, they are mostly just different.

One area where that is highly pronounced is shooting.

George Hill has always been an above-average shooter. He unexpectedly put his flag down as a high-level NBA player and earned the admiration of GOAT head coach Gregg Popovich early on, making 39.9% of his 3-point attempts during his second year in the league as a 23-year-old out of an unknown college.

He would never beat that mark — until last season.

Hill hit a career-best 40.8% of his triples for the 2015-16 Pacers and proved that he can be a big offensive weapon even if he plays off ball a lot and struggles to consistently remain aggressive.

The best oddity of following his career as a Pacer, however, was his shooting consistency before he broke out last season.

In his first three years in Indiana, the Hoosier native shot 36.7%, 36.8%, and 36.5% from long range. (His overall FG% was even nuttier: 44.2%, 44.3%, 44.2%.) There has never been better proof of a player being, at worst, a 37% shooter from deep. While this isn’t J.J. Redick-level, it’s well above last season’s league average of 35.4%.

Jeff Teague, on the other hand is the very definition of an average shooter, often faring much worse even.

His career rate is almost exactly average, at 35.5%, but his percentage dipped way under that mark in two of his past three seasons. In 2014-15, his All-Star season, he made just 34.3% of his treys, and even that disappointing showing was a big step up from his prior-year mark of 32.9%.

While 35% is acceptable, 33% means you’re borderline hurting your team each time you square up from behind the arc. We’re talking Solomon Hill territory here in which every jumper is an adventure.

There may be hope, however.

Last year, Teague shot a career-best 40.0% from deep. And he did it while taking 275 triples, the most attempts of his career.

Better still, he was absolutely lethal in catch-and-shoot situations. In an analysis I did last week for FanSided, Teague had the best catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage in the entire NBA at 49.6%. (My study required a minimum of 500 minutes played and 41 made 3-pointers on the season.)

Obviously, Jeff Teague is unlikely to beat out the likes of Steph Curry and Redick for a second straight season. There is something of an anomaly aspect to all this. But if his shooting has really improved by a replicable amount — possible though seemingly unlikely for a 28-year-old — it is a game changer for his skill set.

Pairing his quickness and ability to drive with some knockdown shooting would make his size and defensive issues all disappear pretty quickly. This is especially true if he will be playing alongside Monta Ellis, another high-level penetrator who lacks range.

For more on Teague’s catch-and-shoot prowess from last season, here is the full excerpt about him from my earlier column.

1. Jeff Teague

56-of-113 (49.6 percent)

Jeff Teague? The guy from Atlanta?

Well, it’s Indiana now, but yes.

In 300 guesses, Teague’s name would be unlikely to come up for this distinction. Even Hawks fans who saw him shoot well all year would likely be stumped.

Teague did rip up the nets last year, however.

It thus seems odd that he was put on the trade market during what was — by far — his career-best shooing season. At 40.0 percent on all types of 3s, Teague shattered his previous high of 37.5 percent. Until last season, he hadn’t made more than 35.9 percent since 2010-11.

Teague’s shooting display is hard to explain. Players can improve as shooters, of course, but such a jump — as a 27-year-old with six years of experience — is unusual to say the least. The sample size is not exactly Curry-like, but it’s also 113 catch-and-shoot 3s and 275 overall. That is a lot by historical standards.

One reasonable explanation could be an assumption of increased off-ball play. But despite the emergence of Dennis Schröder (whose youth and talent eventually pushed him off the roster), Teague only shared the court with his German teammate for 126 minutes. Teague’s usage rate was also a career-high 26.6 percent, so it isn’t exactly like there is much statistical evidence of him developing passivity and just standing around open in the corner all game.

The smart money here is simply on Teague having a fantastic shooting season. When standing behind the arc and fed by his ‘mates, he delivered. Whether this was luck or something he can build on for the future remains to be seen.

Larry Bird and the Indiana Pacers are certainly hoping it’s a sign of things to come.