Indiana Pacers Draft Profiles: Wings
By Jon Washburn
This is the third part of our Indiana Pacers Draft Preview series. For an overview, check out this Draft Primer. For deeper-dive analysis on the potential players that Indiana may select, check out break downs of potential Pacers playmakers and bigs.
When Lance Stephenson spurned the Pacers in the summer of 2014, their shooting guard of the future disappeared. Larry Bird moved quickly to replace him, signing Rodney Stuckey who was excited to play for a playoff team again. Of course, Paul George broke his leg shortly thereafter. It wasn’t long before both Roy Hibbert and David West were no longer with the team, and the Pacers were forced into a pseudo-rebuild far sooner than anyone expected.
Sir Lance-a-lot has struggled since he left Indiana and their “grown-man culture” that they had tried to implement, but the Pacers have yet to find his longterm replacement. C.J. Miles is a streaky shooter that selflessly tried to play big for the Pacers last year, but that strategy took its toll on Miles who, 2016, really started to look like a player that’s been in the league for more than a decade. Bird finally got his hands on a creator last summer when he brought in Monta Ellis. Ellis had a much better year than people realize, and was part of a Top 3 NBA defense, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and the Pacers will be looking to find his replacement very soon.
While the Pacers have decent depth at shooting guard, it might be their weakest position in the starting lineup next season. Larry Bird would be more than justified to draft Indiana’s future two-guard on Thursday. Should he go that direction, here are four guys that he might consider.
Timothe Luwawu
- Height: 6′ 7″
- Weight: 205 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 1″
- Max Vertical: NA
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 11th, O’Connor – 9th, Draft Express – 12th, Chad Ford – 33rd, Sports Illustrated – 11th, NBADraft.net – 29th, Doug Gottlieb – 14th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Homeless Man’s Kawhi Leonard
Scouts are all over the map with Luwawu. While he’s never going to be Kawhi Leonard, he could very well be a sweeter shooting Thabo Sefolosha, which would be a welcome addition to any team in the league.
Luwawu lacks some of the specific measurements that we’ve come to feel entitled to with American prospects, but he’s a freak athlete with perceptibly long arms and enormous hands. The Frenchman is not just another “comfortable athlete” that can throw down some smooth dunks in pre-game warmups. He’s a vicious dunker that attacks defenders at the rim with ferocity. DraftExpress.com notes that he’s able to finish “from well outside the charge circle,” and the game tape gleefully verifies.
Athletically, Luwawu reminds me a lot of a shorter Paul George. He takes long strides which enable him to cover an enormous amount of space in a short time. Like many Europeans, Luwawu is comfortable with both hands, attacking the basket with right and left-handed dunks, and also spraying one-handed passes around the court with either mitt. Scouts are most excited about Luwawu’s defensive potential. Luwawu will have to adjust to the NBA and its prohibition of handchecking, but he’s a tenacious on-ball defender that often pressured his man for 94-feet. His discipline on defensive closeouts is eerily reminiscent of a young Paul George — Luwawu seldom leaves his feet and stays low while using his length to bother the jumper. He seamlessly switches between every perimeter position, and one could even see him holding his own for a possession or two against some NBA Power Forwards.
Luwawu is still a work in progress offensively. He actually has great balance on his jump shot, especially coming off screens. And his release is short and compact, not unlike Ray Allen. However, his shooting elbow tends to flair out a little too far, rendering him a far streakier shooter than he should be. While he shot 37-percent from long range for Mega Leks last year, many of those were of the catch-and-shoot variety. Luwawu really struggles to create for himself, unless he’s exploding through a wide open lane to finish at the rim.
This is mostly due to his biggest weakness: a lack of offensive awareness. Luwawu is the type of player that excels a Plan A and has no idea what to do if he has to pivot to Plan B. Luwawu seldom sees the correct pass within the flow of the offense, and if he does, he’s usually on-time, but off-target with the delivery (on second thought, the Pacers are probably the perfect team for him). His handle is ok, but his decision-making is atrocious. Like a young Paul George, Luwawu will often receive a screen and seemingly be stunned that help defense exists. His turnover rate was plain bad in a weaker league, and he really needs to improve at basic offensive reads if he’s going to be a rotation player in the NBA.
Luwawu offers a lot of upside and intrigue, and would be great value for the Pacers at #20 (most mock drafts have him drafted earlier). He could immediately be part of a stellar defensive lineup and would provide adequate floor spacing on the offensive end. However, his propensity for turnovers would most likely render him to be a deep bench player in year one, and the Pacers and their fans would need to show patience with his development.
Furkan Korkmaz
- Height: 6′ 7″
- Weight: 185 lbs
- Wingspan: NA
- Max Vertical: NA
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 23rd, O’Connor – 17th, Draft Express – 20th, Chad Ford – 13th, Sports Illustrated – 14th, NBADraft.net – 10th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s Evan Fournier
The 18-year-old Turkish gunner is the youngest player in the draft, and probably its purest shooter not named Buddy Hield. Korkmaz is still raw, but he flashes huge upside for potential suiters.
The European Gordon Hayward is much more than just a shooter, but his offensive profile has to start there. While he only averaged 9 minutes for Anadolu Efes, he still hoisted up almost two threes per game and shot 42%. His release is high and quick, and he should have little trouble getting it off against NBA defenses. His handle is tight and creative, and he shows fluidity in his hips to change direction and create one-on-one shots for himself. He’s comfortable shooting off the catch, but he’s also crafty enough to attack close outs and can even finish above the rim. Further, he seems like he would be a real fan favorite, especially amongst Star Wars lovers.
Offensively, he’s a borderline genius for an 18-year-old. He reads the defense expertly and nuances his movements with precision. He is able to curl off screens, fade off screens, and back cut his defender; and this is just his intelligence away from the ball. If he maximizes his potential, he could one day become a team’s primary perimeter scorer and secondary ball handler on key possessions.
Furkan possesses all the weaknesses you might expect from an 18-year-old kid. He’s painfully skinny, and will need to add some bulk in order to deal with the pounding of an NBA season. NBA teams should be able to punish him defensively, not because he’s too slow, but because he’s simply too weak. His frame is a real concern moving forward as well. Some scouts wonder whether he will ever be able to put on the needed size to play on the wing at the NBA level.
His frailty also makes him a poor finisher at the rim with even slight contact. While Korkmaz has thrown down some pretty big dunks in his limited action, he typically shies away from all contact near the basket, and he will need to be able to attack these situations better in order to cement himself as a real NBA scorer.
Furkan Korkmaz oozes upside, especially if he’s able to put on fifteen to twenty pounds as he matures. His offensive game is enticing, and his shooting alone should land him a spot in the NBA for years to come. Larry Bird will need to decide whether he’s willing to be patient with a young potential offensive star, or if he’d rather draft a more mature prospect that is able to contribute right away.
Malik Beasley
- Height: 6′ 4.5″
- Weight: 190 lbs
- Wingspan: 6′ 7″
- Max Vertical: NA
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 10th, O’Connor – 7th, Draft Express – 14th, Chad Ford – 18th, Sports Illustrated – 18th, NBADraft.net – 32nd, Doug Gottlieb – 19th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s J.J. Redick
Malik Beasley is another polarizing prospect, but he’s much less of a risk than the two Europeans. Scouts are unsure whether Beasley will ever blossom into an NBA starter, but he should have a nice career as a rotation player somewhere.
Beasley is a good athlete with great basketball instincts. He thrived at Florida State where he was able to play off the ball and use his athleticism to move off screens, slash, and back-cut his opponents to death. He’s especially deadly in transition where he scored 1.3 ppp for the Seminoles. He could also finish said fast breaks with authority.
His jumper is pure and fundamentally sound, as the picture on the right demonstrates. He shot 38% from deep in the ACC last year on more than 4 attempts per game. Beasley was often defended by the other team’s best perimeter player, and also served as his team’s best defensive perimeter threat. He’s your classic “3-and-D” guy that should have a nice career in the NBA.
While Beasley is quick and strong, he has below average physical tools In fact, his 6′ 7″ wingspan was the shortest of any non-point guard in the entire combine. One has to wonder whether he will be able to get his shot off against NBA wings, and if he will be able to defend longer players as well. Further, while he is a crafty off-ball scorer, he was limited as an on-the-ball player in college against inferior athletes. Really, there isn’t much upside to Beasley’s game, unless he develops into a J.J. Redick-level shooter in order to overcome his other shortcomings.
Beasley would be a safe, but unsexy pick for the Pacers at #20. Realistically, if one of the previous wings has already been snapped up, it would probably be a reach for Bird to draft Beasley, unless he was just completely sold on his shooting ability.
Malcolm Brogdon
- Height: 6′ 5.5″
- Weight: 223 lbs
- Wingspan: 6′ 10.5″
- Max Vertical: 35.5″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 28th, O’Connor – 22nd, Draft Express – 42nd, Chad Ford – 38th, Sports Illustrated – 34th, NBADraft.net – 32nd
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Danny Green
Every year, a college senior falls further in the draft than he should for stupid reasons like, “he’s older than everyone else and will (presumably) improve less than all of these young guys with massive upside. Every year, said player steps onto the floor and makes an immediate impact like Norm Powell did for the 2016 Toronto Raptors. Malcolm Brogdon is that player in this year’s draft.
Brogdon has everything you would want in an NBA wing. He’s got good size and length, very good athleticism, above average strength, and a smooth jump shot. Brogdon played for one of the best defensive coaches in college basketball, and was Virginia’s leader on that end of the floor. Interestingly, Virginia’s “Pack-Line” defense has a lot in common with the Burke/Vogel defense that emphasizes cutting off straight-line drives with help defense, dropping under screens and challenging from behind, and closing out consistently with discipline. He really is the rare draft prospect that has zero holes in his defensive arsenal.
From day one, Brogdon projects to be a good NBA defender with the versatility to cover all three perimeter positions. He’s also an outstanding floor spacer that shot 39% from long range on over 5 attempts per game last year. While not necessarily a slippery ball handler, he’s crafty and smart with the ball and uses his body well to create space against good defense. He’s also athletic enough to dunk in tight spaces, as evidenced by the video below. He’s not a sexy player, but he’s a good player, and he should contribute to almost any NBA team in 2016-17.
Most of Brogdon’s weaknesses have to do with his perceived lack of upside, but some scouts have wondered whether he will be able to create at the NBA level. His handle is not tight enough, nor are his hips fluid enough to beat defensive players on his own. It’s likely that he will have a bit of a Danny Green-esque career offensively, which of course is valuable on the right team, but could also be wasted on inferior squads. Further, he’s a pretty predictable player on the offensive end of the floor, and the ceiling to his upside is indeed low.
Brogdon is the type of player that could step in from day one and potentially even start some games at shooting guard for the Pacers in 2016-17. Bird might covet his immediate impact, but he would most likely have to ignore some higher upside prospects to draft the ACC standout.