This is the first part of our Indiana Pacers Draft Preview series, offering a an overview of who might be available when the Pacers pick 20th. For deeper-dive analysis on the potential players that Indiana may select, check out break downs of playmakers, wings and bigs.
Well, that’s over. Congratulations to LeBron, Kyrie, the entire city of Cleveland, and even you, Kevin Love (and of course, this includes the tangential shout out to Stone Cold Steve Austin). I wasn’t able to breathe for two solid days. The NBA, man, it seldom disappoints.
But it’s June 20, and that means the NBA Draft is upon us.
After a great bounce-back year that saw Paul George return better than ever, Myles Turner flash glimpses of a potential All-Star career, and George Hill silence some skeptics (at least for three days in mid-May), the Indiana Pacers will select 20th on Thursday night.
Even though he’s swung and missed on a few free-agent moves, Larry Bird’s career as an executive has been mostly good, especially regarding the draft (and especially if we pretend the whole Tyler Hansbrough thing never happened). Counted among Bird’s draft day successes are Danny Granger, Paul George, Lance Stephenson, Roy Hibbert, Myles Turner, and I suppose even Kawhi Leonard. It’s obviously dicier picking at 20, but history proves that game changers are often still available this late in the draft.
Looking at the Big Boards
Perhaps the most difficult part of a draft preview for a team selecting this late is evaluating who will actually be available when the Pacers finally step up to the podium. Great talents occasionally free-fall for ridiculous reasons, but you don’t need me to tell you that, obviously, the Pacers should snap up Kris Dunn if he inexplicably falls all the way to them.
Basically, we need to a priori cross some guys off of our hypothetical list before we start sorting through the prospects that will realistically be available for the Pacers. To do this, I compared my “Big Board” with six other respected Big Boards from around the internet, including Kevin O’Connor, DraftExpress.com, Chard Ford, Sports Illustrated, NBADraft.net, and Doug Gottlieb.
Jon Washburn |
Kevin O’Connor
Draft Express
Chad Ford
Sports Illustrated
Doug Gottlieb
1
Ben Simmons*
Brandon Ingram
Brandon Ingram
Ben Simmons
Brandon Ingram
Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons
2
Kris Dunn
Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons
Brandon Ingram
Ben Simmons
Brandon Ingram
Kris Dunn
3
Dragan Bender
Dragan Bender
Dragan Bender
Kris Dunn
Dragan Bender
Jaylen Brown
Brandon Ingram
4
Brandon Ingram
Kris Dunn
Kris Dunn
Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray
Kris Dunn
Dragan Bender
5
Jamal Murray
Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown
Marquese Chriss
Kris Dunn
Buddy Hield
Henry Ellenson
6
Marquese Chriss
Buddy Hield
Marquese Chriss
Dragan Bender
Henry Ellenson
Dragan Bender
Jakob Poetl
7
Jaylen Brown
Wade Baldwin
Jamal Murray
Jaylen Brown
Buddy Hield
Marquese Chriss
Jamal Murray
8
Deyonta Davis
Jamal Murray
Buddy Hield
Buddy Hield
Marquese Chriss
Jamal Murray
Jaylen Brown
9
Buddy Hield
Timothe Luwawu
Jakob Poetl
Dejounte Murray
Jakob Poetl
Domantas Sabonis
Buddy Hield
10
Wade Baldwin
Marquese Chriss
Skal Labissiere
Domantas Sabonis
Jaylen Brown
Furkan Korkmaz
Domantas Sabonis
11
Timothy Luwawu
Deyonta Davis
Deyonta Davis
Henry Ellenson
Timothe Luwawu
Dejounte Murray
Deandre Bembry
12
DeAndre Bembry
Domantas Sabonis
Timothe Luwawu
Jakob Poetl
Deyonta Davis
Deyonta Davis
Marquese Chriss
13
Domantas Sabonis**
DeAndre Bembry
Henry Ellenson
Furkan Korkmaz
Domantas Sabonis
Damian Jones
Deyonta Davis
14
Dejounte Murray
Demetrius Jackson
Wade Baldwin
Skal Labissiere
Furkan Korkmaz
Brice Johnson
Timothe Luwawu
15
Henry Ellenson
Jakob Poetl
Juan Hernangomez
Malachi Richardson
Skal Labissiere
Jakob Poetl
Juan Hernangomez
16
Denzel Valentine
Chinanu Onuaku
Ivica Zubac
Deyonta Davis
Denzel Valentine
Skal Labissiere
Brice Johnson
17
Juan Hernangomez
Furkan Korkmaz
Demetrius Jackson
Wade Baldwin
Demetrius Jackson
Caris Lavert
Stephen Zimmerman
18
Demetrius Jackson
Henry Ellenson
Domantas Sabonis
Juan Hernangomez
Wade Baldwin
Henry Ellenson
Denzel Valentine
19
Taurean Prince
Juan Hernangomez
Taurean Prince
Thon Maker
Ante Zizic
Malachi Richardson
Wade Baldwin
20
Jakob Poetl
Ante Zizic
Furkan Korkmaz
DeAndre Bembry
Dejounte Murray
Denzel Valentine
Gary Payton II
Note, these are Big Boards, not Mock Drafts. Mock Drafts typically factor in team needs, and are useful tools in their own way. However, they are more speculative in nature than Big Boards, and are, for my purposes, less helpful.
*Players in bold are in the Top 15 of all seven Big Boards. **Players in italics are in the Top 15 of all but one Big Board. ***Updated Wednesday, June 22 at 9:30am ET.
It’s not the purpose of this post to explain why those players are ranked where they are. (The exeception is Jakob Poetl. I like that dude — seems like a hard worker and all — but I just watched the entire playoffs and I don’t know how he stays on the floor in today’s NBA. He won’t be available for the Pacers at 20, but I have no idea what teams see in him).
Rather, we simply want to know who will likely be available for the Pacers on draft night. Unless Larry Bird surprises everyone with a draft-day trade, any player that is in bold or italics in the above chart will be ignored. In the off chance that any of those 11 players are available when the Pacers are ready to make their selection, they should immediately draft him, as he would have made a precipitous slide. (Unless, as noted above, that man is Jakob Poetl. I’m just going to assume that all of the Pacers fans that went through the Roy Hibbert experience will agree with me and move on.)
Most scouts consider the 2016 Draft to be slightly below average, especially compared to last year’s incredible collection of talent. Still, some intriguing names should be available for the Pacers when they are ready to make their selection.
Playmakers
(For a more in depth look at each of the following playmakers, click here.)
Wade Baldwin: good at everything, long, athletic, and skilled; inconsistent against elite competition.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: George Hill
DeAndre Bembry: a taller Monta Ellis, meaning he has it all, besides a jump shot; poor defender, both physically and mentally.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Less Mercurial Lance Stephenson
Dejounte Murray: a great athlete with ridiculous length (6’10” wingspan) and good court vision; tends to put his head down and “do his thing” rather than adjusting to what the defense gives him.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Jamal Crawford
Denzel Valentine: the most intelligent player in the draft, can shoot, dribble, pass, and score; so could Evan Turner; the lateral quickness remains a problem.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Evan Turner
Demetrius Jackson: spark plug point guard that would thrive in a sixth man role; probably too inconsistent on both ends to be a starting point guard on a playoff team.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Poor Man’s Jeff Teague
Tyler Ulis: jet-quick point guard with elite court vision and “Big Shot” instincts; he’s short and skinny, will probably be impossible to play as a part of good defensive lineups.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Darren Collison
Shooters
(For a more in depth look at the available wings in the draft, click here.)
Furkan Korkmaz: fluid athlete that might be the best shooter in the draft; gets abused defensively because of his slight frame.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s Evan Fournier
3-and-D Wings
Timothe Luwawu: explosive athlete with deep range; slow release hinders his one-on-one capabilities.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Homeless Man’s Kawhi Leonard
Malik Beasley: great shooter with above average athleticism; a little spastic on both ends, tends to struggle against elite competition.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s J.J. Redick
Malcolm Brogdon: good athlete with ridiculous length and a nice shooting stroke; almost 24 already with (perceived) less upside.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Danny Green
Stretchy-Fours
Taurean Prince: NBA-ready body with good offensive instincts; played a funky zone at Baylor, so nobody knows whether he can actually defend.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Harrison Barnes
Juan Hernangomez: crafty and intelligent stretch four with explosive leaping ability and nice shooting stroke; below average lateral quickness.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s Rashard Lewis
Bigs
Deyonta Davis: long, athletic big man that terrorizes the glass and attacks the rim with ferocity; perhaps a little too lean to guard NBA bigs.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Nerlens Noel
Skal Labissiere: every physical tool in the book, though he’s not as freakish athletically as once thought; a project, he’s only played basketball for a few years.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Less Intelligent Myles Turner
Damian Jones: huge man with great athletic ability; almost no feel for the game and lacks many discernible basketball skills.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Todd MacCulloch
Ante Zizic: he’s enormous; basketball skills…probably?
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Miniature Boban
Brice Johnson: skilled big man with a high motor that never stops; not skilled enough to be a 4, but probably too small to be a 5.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A More Athletic Tyler Hansbrough
The Enigma
Thon Maker: Nobody really has any idea — but this video is so delicious.