Best of Three: Analyzing What the Pacers Must Do Now to Advance

What are the Indiana Pacers doing well in wins? What are they doing well in losses? We take a look at what they must do to advance.

The Indiana Pacers are four games into the NBA playoffs. And much to the surprise of most prognosticators they are still not ready for summer vacation.

The Pacers have held even with the Toronto Raptors, and find themselves in what amounts to a best-of-three series with two games on the road (if necessary). All of the games played so far have been decided by 10 points or more. The series point total stands dead even at 372 to 372, and each team has won a home and a road game.

Series don’t get much more even than this, and each team will be looking for whatever edge possible to try to gain an edge moving forward.

To see where those advantages might lie, let’s look at some key stats from the first four games, and determine what the Pacers may need to do moving forward to secure a ticket to the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Game 1 and Game 4

Shooting
FG%: Pacers: 45.1%, Raptors: 37.3%
3P%: Pacers: 45.9%, Raptors: 24.5%
FT%: Pacers: 74.5%, Raptors: 69.1%
Total Free Throws : Pacers: 47, Raptors: 59

Other Stats
Assists: Pacers: 21.5 per game, Raptors: 14.5
Rebounds: Pacers: 40.5 per game, Raptors: 46
Turnovers: Pacers: 12.5 per game, Raptors: 18 per game
Steals: Pacers: 10.5 per game, Raptors: 7 per game

Notable Performers, Pacers
Paul George: 26 points per game, 11-13 Free Throws (85%), +26
George Hill: 16 points per game, 70.6% shooting, +25

Notable Performers, Raptors

DeMar DeRozan: 11 points per game, 26.5% shooting, 4-6 FTs total, -25
Kyle Lowry: 11.5 points per game, 28% shooting, -18
Jonas Valanciunas: 14 points per game, 47.6% shooting, 12.5 rpg, -21

Game 2 and Game 3 

Shooting
FG%: Pacers: 39.9%, Raptors: 42.5%
3P%: Pacers 23.8%, Raptors: 30.1%
FT%: Pacers: 82.3%, Raptors: 87.8%
Total FTs: Pacers: 63, Raptors: 41

Other Stats
Assists: Pacers: 14.5 per game, Raptors: 18.5
Rebounds: Pacers: 35.5 per game, Raptors: 44.5
Turnovers : Pacers: 14.5 per game, Raptors: 12 per game
Steals : Pacers: 5 per game, Raptors: 7 per game

Notable Performers, Pacers

Lavoy Allen: 1 point per game, 3 rebounds per game, -15
Solo, Miles, Stuckey, Lawson: 16 points per game, 28.1% shooting, 18.8% 3 pt shooting, -74 overall

Notable Performers, Raptors

Kyle Lowry: 19.5 points per game, 8.5 assists per game, +31
Patrick Patterson: 10.5 points per game, 42.8% 3 pt shooting, +34
Jonas Valanciunas: 16 points per game, 50% shooting, 14.5 rebounds per game, +17

Sorting Through the Noise: 3 Pacers Keys

Pacers Key #1: George Hill must win the battle vs Kyle Lowry 

The battle of the point guards has been much more interesting than the statistical comparison prior to the series would’ve led you to believe. Lowry was an All-Star who averaged 21 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds per game in the regular season. He shot 39% from 3 and 43% overall.

George Hill averaged 12 points, 3.5 assists, and 4 rebounds this year. He did shoot better, at 41% from deep and 44% from the field, but has never been an All-Star.

On paper, this matchup was an easy win for the Raptors. However, as usual, it’s not that simple. Pacers fans have longed for Aggressive George Hill™ to return after seeing him step up last year, and he did in game 4. Raptors fans must also be aware of Kyle Lowry’s playoff history (12 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 35% shooting and 28% 3 point shooting), statistics that look very similar to George Hill’s season numbers, but much less efficient.

In two Pacers wins, George Hill is averaging 16 points per game, shooting over 70% from the field, 43% from behind the arc, and the Pacers are +26 when he’s on the floor. Frank Vogel has been using George Hill as a nominal shooting guard on offense, allowing Monta Ellis to initiate the offense while Hill plays off the ball in an attempt to incite his aggression. On the other end of the floor, Hill has been a very good defender throughout his career, and he’s throttling Kyle Lowry. George Hill’s size and discipline on defense are giving him fits.

In the two Pacers losses, Lowry is averaging 19.5 points along with 8.5 assists, and is a huge +31. He’s not shooting well in Toronto wins either, but he’s taking more shots, and his ball distribution has been big. He’s feasted playing against Indiana’s second unit while leading the Raptor’s bench, and often seemed unaware that the Pacers backups were even attempting to defend him.

This one’s pretty clear cut. When Lowry gets loose, the Raptors score more efficiently and turn the ball over less. George Hill almost always plays solid defense, but Aggressive George Hill™ applies to the defensive end too. He starts picking Lowry up closer to half court, applying consistent pressure, making every pass just a little bit harder. The Pacers need Aggressive George Hill™ to show up on offense at least one more time if they want to win this series, and they need him on defense each and every possession.

Pacers Key #2: The bench must hold even

In Games 2 and 3, the bench (outside of now starting Myles Turner) got absolutely waxed by the Raptors. The quartet of C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Ty Lawson, and Solomon Hill were a combined -74 for the two games, and only one of them (C.J. Miles) posted a single game in the positive column, going +1 in Game 2. Miles hasn’t scored more than 6 points in a game this series, and is 1-of-11 from behind the arc. Ty Lawson looked unfathomably bad in Games 2 and 3, and the offense didn’t always even initiate with him running it. When the Pacers aren’t running, he’s not been helpful.

Meanwhile, the Raptors have been staggering their stars and keeping one in the game (seems like something Frank Vogel could investigate), and Kyle Lowry especially has made life difficult for the Pacers second unit. Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, and Normal Powell have all had moments, while the Pacers are still waiting for either Stuckey or Miles to get the lid off the rim and do what they do best.

In the games the Pacers have lost in this series, the bench has consistently cost them points and been unable to hold serve. The Pacers don’t need the bench guys to dominate, but they won’t survive if the bench can’t at least play the Raptors reserves within shooting distance of a draw.

Pacers Key #3: The Pacers must play defense with intensity and force turnovers 

This Pacers team is no longer the brute-force, ground-and-pound team of the past. Some of the pieces are familiar, but they can no longer overwhelm teams with pure size and strength. Monta Ellis especially is a minus on the defensive end if he’s not forcing turnovers, and the bench mob needs to run in order to score.

The Pacers need hands in passing lanes, blocked shots they can recover, and to force some bad shots. All of these things can lead to run-outs and easy buckets for a team full of guys who excel in finishing on the break. If the Pacers fail to bring intensity on the defensive end, they’re going to be fighting an uphill battle, and they’re not going to take two out of three against the Raptors.