Is Paul George the NBA’s best two-way player? Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel thinks he is.
Frank Vogel may be a little biased, but after the Indiana Pacers’ torching of the Washington Wizards, the coach said as much according to the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo.
"“It’s tough to quantify in words,” Pacers Coach Frank Vogel said. “I mean, he just does so much. He’s capable of going for 40, carrying the offensive load and being the best defensive player on either team. He’s a special player, and the best two-way player in the game. We’re a different team with him out there.”"
The best two-way player in the game is a tricky term to try to parse out. It is hard to argue against Stephen Curry being the league’s MVP, but his value comes from his offensive play. That’s not to say he’s a bad defender, he’s on the league’s 3rd best defense, but he’s not going to be called a lock-down defender by anyone. The term two-way player is to more or less try to say a player has a more balanced approach to their play. It shouldn’t be taken as a term of definitive value, but as a term to highlight players that are truly standouts on both ends of the floor.
So what do the numbers say about Paul George? Let’s take a look.
27.2 points a game
Paul George has scored 20 or more points in every game since November 4th and is averaging 29.5 points a game in the month of November. In PG’s first four games, he struggled to score more than 18 points, but since then scoring hasn’t been a problem at all for him. He’s dropped 40 and 39 points in two of his last three games and is shooting 45.9% on the season.
45.5% 3-Point Percentage
Paul George is attempting a career-high 7 3-pointers a game, but more importantly he’s making close 45.5% of them this season, also a career best. PG may say he’s not a fan of analytics, but the current trend he’s on of shooting more from deep is something that would be praised by Daryl Morey and other analytics-driven teams. When you look at players who shoot 4 or more 3-pointers a game, Paul George ranks 5th in the league. He’s shooting fine from mid-range as well, making at least a third of his shots from the 10 to less than 3-point ranges.
94.5 Defensive Rank
His defensive rating of 94.5 ranks 10th in the league among players who play for at least 25 minutes a game. Though defensive rating is dependent on the five players on the court, to dismissed PG’s effect with that line of logic misses the point that he’s a big reason why their defense is ranked 3rd in the league right now. The on/off numbers help clarify this as the Pacers defensive rating rises to 99.3 with him off the court compared to 94.3 with him on the court. The Pacers are 10.3 points better a game with Paul George on the court.
5.80 Real Plus-Minus
ESPN has a statistic known as real plus-minus, which is defined as a player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, and additional factors. Paul George is currently ranked 9th in the league with a 5.8 RPM. The list ahead of him is certainly a collection of the league’s best, including Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard.
If you look at the individual offensive real plus-minus and defensive real plus-minus, PG has marks 5.30 and 0.50, respectively. The offensive number puts him at 7th in the league while the defensive number is ranked… 157th? Part of the problem with RPM is the defensive numbers they tend to favor power forwards in centers, as they tend to have more of a direct effect on defense, as we saw with Roy Hibbert in the past. Ian Mahinmi ranks 3rd in the league with a mark of 5.03, behind Tim Duncan and DeAndre Jordan. So while DRPM might be a strong measure of a player’s defensive efficiency in a statistical sense, it isn’t a perfect number for deciding exactly how much of an impact a player has. Do you really think there are 157 defenders better than Paul George?
So what does all this really mean? Eh, mainly depends on your own biases. For most Pacers fans, it will translate to a strong argument that Paul George is the best two-way player in the league. For others they’ll say Kawhi Leonard, or whatever player they like. Trying to define something like “best two-way player is inherently problematic to start with. No one thinks Stephen Curry plays better defense than PG, but does it really matter when you’re offense is that good? Does it matter that he’s more biased offensively?
Of course all this is only looking at it statistically.
Our own Jared Wade pointed out in his Weekside column that trying to quantify or qualify Paul George’s defense isn’t always easy to put into words or numbers.
"He isn’t a menacing defender in the way that Tony Allen can be. He doesn’t exert a constant physical pressure. His best attribute is that he is relentless — he is just always … there — and never makes mistakes. His body control is uncanny and he simply stays with his man, rarely being screened due to a liquid-like ability to maneuver around picks and then mirroring his man’s every move.PG gives ground if you dribble at him, but just slightly, using quicker-than-yours feet to seemingly go where the ball-handler is headed before he even knows and then bodying him up.He rarely blocks shots — other than the occasional chasedown or swat out of weakside help — because he doesn’t need to. He just leaves you in a weakened state with no advantages while holding ground and looking at the dribbler like, “What do you really expect to accomplish here?”"
Trying to define something like this is difficult, to say the least.
I mean, just look at this possession where he simply refuses to let Jimmy Butler do anything, forcing a tough shot that doesn’t have much of a chance.
You can say this though: Paul George is playing like an MVP candidate right now. His defense is as much a part of it as his current average of 27.2 points a game. Paul George hasn’t taken time off on either side of the ball and it’s clearly paying off for the Indiana Pacers.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter if Paul George is the best two-way player or not. All that matters for him and the Indiana Pacers right now is that they are winning.