At some point this season, the Pacers will be healthy (fingers crossed). George Hill’s lungs will resume functioning, Rodney Stuckey’s ankles will cease to wobble, and Myles Turner’s thumb will reattach itself.
At that point, Frank Vogel will again be able to base his lineups on choice, rather than necessity. One choice he’ll have to make is between Chase Budinger and Glenn Robinson III.
Both are coming off of big nights in the team’s blowout win over the Milwaukee Bucks. With George Hill out, Budinger got the start alongside Monta Ellis in the back court and knocked down 3-of-4 triples on the way to 13 points. Now, after a rough shooting start to the year, Bud has hit 9 of his last 17 attempts from deep, bringing his 3-point percentage to an impressive 41.4% on the year.
Against the Bucks, albeit often in inconsequential blowout minutes, Robinson dropped 17 points on 6-of-7 shooting. He also recently scored 11 and 9 points against the Timberwolves and Sixers, respectively, while regularly playing about 20 minutes per game since the injury bug hit Hill, Stuckey, and C.J. Miles.
The Stats
When you look at the stats for these two guys, the first thing you notice is the similarities. Their win shares and VORP (value over replacement player) numbers tell us that, on an individual level, their net effect is the same. This is further born out by their offensive and defensive ratings. Overall the team has performed better with Budinger on the court, but with only a 12 game sample size, the plus/minus statistic is not incredibly reliable.
The statistics do, however, highlight some of the differences in their games. For example, Robinson is a better, more prolific scorer. Budinger, on the other hand, is a better facilitator and shooter.
The Decision
With both players having a similar overall net effect, the decision may not depend so much on who is better or performing better, but on which skill set Vogel desires or which limitations he’s willing to live with on floor at any given moment.
Budinger is much more of a known commodity than Robinson. Being a veteran, he is much more likely to give consistent performances from one night to the next and on both ends of the floor. Robinson is young and lacks Budinger’s seasoning and consistency. In Vogel’s own words, he is green defensively, but offers a level of “steady, solid play” that is above expectations for a guy who is still getting his feet wet in the league.
In the short term, Chase would be the guy that gets the back-up 3 minutes, and Glenn would be out of the rotation. But it’s not by any doing of his own. It’s Larry Bird’s fault, really, for giving me to many good players. I blame him.” – Frank Vogel
“He really doesn’t force things on the offensive end,” said Vogel of Robinson. “The ball swings to him, and he either knocks down a big shot or makes a solid play off the bounce. He needs to work a little bit harder on the defensive end, but that’s just a matter of experience and growing. I feel good every time he’s out there.”
How Vogel views this season may also have a large role in his decision-making. The Pacers are clearly not the Philadelphia 76ers, but they are also far from a finished product. They are currently playing like a playoff team and, in the past couple weeks stood toe-to-toe with — and nearly defeated — the two best teams in the East.
Most observers, however, would say they are one or two pieces away from being legitimate contenders. Budinger probably gives the Pacers the best chance to win right now, but offers less in terms of future value or upside. Robinson shows flashes of talent that hint at him growing into something more than just a replacement-level wing over the next couple of seasons. If Vogel sees this as more of a transitional season, it would be tempting to let Robinson learn on the fly for a few hundred minutes to shorten his learning curve.
Ultimately the decision is up to Vogel, but he may have tipped his hand with his handling of Joe Young. Prior to the season starting, it was reported that Young would be the backup point guard and that Vogel was willing to give him developmental minutes, knowing that mistakes would be made. Once games started counting, however, that never materialized and the point guard duties have been handled by George Hill and Monta Ellis. Given this knowledge, I would guess Vogel will ultimately lean in Budinger’s direction.
Ultimately, this is a good problem to have. The rotation is simply not big enough for all the players who deserve NBA minutes, so that means that Robinson will probably have to keep waiting his turn once everyone is healthy.
“Going deeper would go 11, 12 deep,” said Vogel. “I’ve already got guys I’m struggling to find minutes for … When we get fully healthy, likely in the short term, Chase would be the guy that gets the back-up 3 minutes, and Glenn would be out of the rotation. But it’s not by any doing of his own. It’s Larry Bird’s fault, really, for giving me to many good players. I blame him.”