AMA Mailbag #3: Your Pacers Questions, Our Pacers Answers

Welcome back to the 8 Points 9 Seconds mailbag, where we take your questions about the Indiana Pacers and make you feel internet famous because we answered them! Today’s mailbag will be more pleasant than last time, as the Pacers have won six of their last eight games following an 0-and-3 start.

We’ll be using a consistent email for this process: 8p9sAMA@gmail.com. You can feel free to shoot questions over to that address or reply on Twitter to @8pts9secs using hashtag #8p9sAMA or visit our Facebook page to leave comments.

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• Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

You’ve got questions? We’ve got answers.

Matt H: With us starting to find a rhythm, do you think Myles Turner’s injury is going to severely affect us since it’s going to be forcing more minutes on both Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill?

It will take away some of the Pacers versatility, but I don’t think it’s a huge issue, assuming the timeline remains six weeks. It gives Turner a chance to get his lower body stronger, and Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, and Lavoy Allen are capable enough to keep the team from cratering.

It does limit the Pacers variance, and my biggest concern isn’t that it’s giving those players more minutes. It’s that the offense is still going to be a work in progress heading into the new year, instead of gelling as it would have with everyone healthy. That’s where I think Turner’s injury really hurts.

Ben: Will Paul make an All-NBA team this year? 

If he keeps up the 24-point/9-rebound/5-assist pace he’s currently putting up, I don’t think there’s anything that could keep him from getting on the team. Paul George is playing out of his mind right now. If the mid-range jumpers keep falling, he’ll be an all NBA guy.

Ry How has Monta been so far?? He started off strong with Mavs. Know that hasn’t been case with Pacers.

Monta Ellis has been streaky, at the very least: 12.6 PPG at 40% shooting and 23% from deep. This looks awful, but he’s actually been very good for the Pacers from my point of view. He’s been a solid defender (cue the sound for the Vogel Effect), he’s leading the team in assists, and he’s taking pressure off of Paul George and George Hill.

Hill can play off the ball (and he has played off the ball, rather than camping off the ball in 1 spot), Paul can get himself in positions to score without having to go 1 on 1 every time, and when all else fails, the Pacers don’t have a better “get to the rim with a chance” guy than Monta.

He is shooting entirely too many 3s (more than 3 per game), but I expect his overall shooting numbers to improve (he was awful to start the year), and I’d guess the scoring will raise a few notches too. If Vogel can talk him out of 1 of those 3s every game, Ellis will be a very good pickup for the Pacers.

Agentfelix: Everyone talks about how good Paul George’s defense is. Is it realistic for him to ever win a Defensive Player of the Year award?

I think Paul George is, when he’s at his best, one of the 5 best defenders in the association. However, I think it’s unlikely that he beats out Kawhii Leonard (who has Lana Kane hands) and Anthony Davis’s unibrow in the same season. PG is very, very good, but those two are transcendent on the defensive end. If Paul has another level in him (another “jump”, if you will), he would be one of the front runners, but right now, I’d say he’s automatically on the outside looking in to start every year.

Jordan S: If PG can bring a championship to Indy in three to five years and continue to put up big numbers is he the Pacers’ best player ever?

He’d certainly be in the top five for me personally. It’s hard to knock out Mel Daniels or Reggie Miller, but it’s possible. If PG continues to put up 25 and 9 while guarding the other team’s best player, he absolutely could be the best Pacer ever.

David H: If this pace continues and everyone gets healthy, when do you think GR3 takes Chase’s rotation minutes?

I think Glenn Robinson III has already taken some of Chase’s minutes, but I believe there’s room for both of them in the rotation. They bring different skill sets altogether. GRob brings a lot of physicals that Chase Budinger doesn’t (though Bud was a brilliant dunker, people tend to forget), and has the ability to get to the bucket and finish. Chase is a very good passer and a much better shooter from deep.

There should be room for both guys depending on game flow, and I think you’ll see both get run, further sealing Solomon Hill’s fate as an emergency player only.

Kevin S: Do you think the Pacers will keep going to a small ball line up at the end of games to avoid Ian’s free-throw shooting being exposed and a liability?

I would guess so, yea. The Pacers do have plenty of options in that scenario though. Myles Turner (once he’s back) projects to be a very good free-throw shooter for a big man, and both Lavoy Allen and Jordan Hill shot about 70% from the line last year. C.J. Miles and Paul George as the forwards is a good free-throw shooting duo, but my bigger concern right now is that both George Hill and Monta Ellis are in the 73-74% range. I would expect the Pacers to go small in fouling situations.

Tony L: Should the Pacers be worried about now or years to come in terms of young talent? 

The Pacers are in the interim right now. They are neither Oklahoma City (all in for a title) nor Philadelphia (selling anything that will fetch 99 cents). Larry Bird’s job is probably tougher. He is trying to balance both winning now and building a better team for the future.

I do think Myles Turner will continue to play major minutes once he returns from the thumb injury. And Joe Young will eventually get the chance to prove himself, but he will have to show he’s ready. The Pacers won’t waste minutes on guys who aren’t ready for the NBA stage, but they’re going to develop their young guys.

Stephen T: Is Joe Young done? Vogel calls him the “backup point guard” and so far nothing.

Joe Young is certainly not done. It’s true he isn’t getting any real run so far this year, but it’s only 10 games in, and he was used heavily against the Bulls with George Hill out. Vogel is still trying to figure out his lineups and rotations, but it is simply hard to find him minutes when you have Hill, Monta, and Stuckey taking up 95% (or more) of the 96 available back-court minutes per game. At this stage, Young simply doesn’t deserve to cut into the minutes that would otherwise go to established, reliable NBA talent (all of which are better scorers than him right now).

My guess is that Young will get an opportunity to prove himself sooner rather than later. The Pacers aren’t going to play him “just because” though. He has to show he can contribute against NBA rotation guys.

Dennis H: Should we expect Chase Budinger to start doing something well? Or is this just what he is?

The context of this question has changed a bit since it was submitted, but to update: Chase Budinger is now shooting 40% from deep, and is averaging a half turnover per game. That’s exactly what the Pacers want from him: shoot the 3 ball, don’t turn the ball over, know the offense, don’t blow assignments (like Robinson does all day long) and be willing to (try) to guard whomever is requested on defense.

If Bud continues to do those things, he’ll have a spot in the rotation — ahead of players who may look flashier at times but also have way more awful possessions.

Josh W: Is there a big the team can acquire? Mahinmi Turner and Hill aren’t going to cut it.

The Pacers do have multiple expiring mid-sized contracts (Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger) and draft picks. They don’t have much young talent unfortunately and with the salary cap jumping up so far next year, expiring deals have less value now than ever.

So I just don’t see the Pacers swinging big on a big. My guess: the hope is for Turner to take over the 5 next year, while mainly wings man the 4 spot. If a guy like one of the Morris twins comes available, the Pacers might make a deal, but I can’t see them spending many assets on a rental big man. I’m guessing they’d only trade if they could get a young, foundational stretch big to play alongside Myles Turner.

JP S: Will we ever see @Whittington21 (Shayne Whittington) get some minutes over Lavoy Allen? He has been really underwhelming this year.

I agree that Lavoy Allen’s season so far (including his wretched inability to finish) has been underwhelming, but Shayne Whittington has not exactly earned anything in terms of minutes. He’s billed as a stretch big, but his shooting in Summer League, and now to start the Mad Ants season, has left plenty to be desired, including 0-of-9 from deep in their last game. Shayne would really need to impress some folks in Fort Wayne before ever breaking into the rotation. And I think Rakeem Christmas might make that leap first.

Clark C: College basketball defines the term of “fundamental basketball.” While the Pacers defense has been sub-par this season (excluding the Pistons game), why are we not seeing more zone defense this season and why does the league really despise this concept?  Rarely, will you see anyone play true zone defense.

I think the easiest answer to this is that NBA players are too good. They’re too smart, too fast, too strong, and too talented for a true zone to work. A lot of teams have zone in their repertoire, but it’s a 3-4 possession thing — because once teams figure out you’re in a zone, they know how to beat it. Shooters kill 2-3 zones, good bigs and smart cutting kills 3-2 zones, and all zones get killed on the glass. If a team was going to try to implement zone defense as a part of their base defense, they’d have to acquire/employ the perfect players for it, work tirelessly at it — likely at the expense of other facets — and commit to learning several different zones to combat situational substitutions by the opposition. It’s not impossible to do it in the NBA, but it is improbable.

HowDo_I_TurnThisOn: Do you think Christmas will make an appearance on the court for the Pacers this year? 

I do. He looked reasonably good in the summer league and preseason, and he absolutely crushed his first Mad Ants game with 24 points (11-of-19 shooting), 11 boards, 1 steal, 1 block, and 0 turnovers. It will likely take a trade of some kind or an additional injury for him to move up, but if he continues to play like this, he has a real shot.

Mooney2j: Thoughts on the Solomon Hill situation? (Essentially being replaced by Budinger, and now not having his contract renewed.)

I’m really rather amazed at how he went from starting in 78 games last season (and playing all 82) to being completely unused this season. I was becoming a fan of his last season, as I really felt he stepped up when we had no one else to go to (remember that putback game-winner against Charlotte?).

I was really looking forward to seeing him grow further this season but it seems he will be nothing more than a 12th man this year, barring any injuries or trades throughout the season.

Solomon Hill’s transition from every night starter to end of the bench might be unprecedented. What he did for the Pacers last year was admirable, as a man often out of position, out of his depth, suddenly being asked to play 35 minutes every night, score reliably, and guard the opposing team’s best wing.

While Solo put in a yeoman’s effort every single night, he was overmatched most of the nights. He had his moments certainly, but I think his ultimate future (unless he develops a consistent 3-point shot) is another Sam Young: a mostly plus defender who is absolutely overmatched on offense.

Hill looked bad in the Summer League, and just never developed a diverse enough offensive repertoire to be effective. As Golden State showed last year against Memphis, guys who can’t score are becoming more and more harmful in this league, and Solo is no different. His only path to NBA relevancy is to develop something on offense, some usable skill. Until then, he’s probably a 12th man no matter where he goes* (*except Philadelphia).