Very Few Sportswriters Expect Pacers to Make Playoffs
By Ben Gibson
The only problem with running a blog about the Indiana Pacers with Indiana Pacers fans is we can be a little bit biased from time to time. Sure, some of us try to be objective, but ultimately we’ll probably give them too much credit or over compensate by being overly critical.
One way to get a clearer picture of this year’s Pacers squad is to look at what the rest of the NBA universe is saying about Indiana. Plus this was if we disagree with what they say we can just throw out the “The media hates us!” card and be smug about anything and everything they get wrong. Or they could be right and it will be time for the Pacers Playlist of Sadness once again.
Either way I encourage you to click the links and read the full spiel from each writer. But for starters, here is the big takeaway: Most websites have the Pacers currently ranked in the bottom half of the league and few sportswriters expect them to make the playoffs, even in a lowly Eastern Conference.
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The first batch of power rankings are alsoout and it seems most see Indiana hovering around the middle of the league.
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So what is the Pacers biggest weakness? If you ask Sporting News, the answer is size. And honestly that’s hard to argue against since the entire offseason has been about the Indiana transitioning to a small-ball team. The move was partly a move of necessity with David West and Luis Scola leaving as well as the team knowing they were moving Roy Hibbert as well.
As much as some fans enjoyed seeing Hibbert leave, Indiana has lost a key piece of their defensive scheme from the past three season. Indiana had the 3rd best rim-defense in the league with Roy standing guard. As John Schuhmann of NBA.com points out the Pacers may have had the best rim defense but with Hibbert being a poor finisher and West not having a 3-point shot, Indiana had the biggest gap between their offense and defense over the past three season of any team in the NBA. Size may now be their biggest weakness but the Pacers are looking to address the gap between their defense (1st in NBA over the past 3 years) and their offense (ranked dead last).
Of course the key to all of this working is how well Paul George can play the power forward position whether he wants to or not.Even though the plan has its critics there is some hope for it according to Ian Levy writing for the Sporting News. We know that the idea is to have him taking advantage of mismatches on the offensive end thanks to his athleticism, but what happens when he’s on defense? We don’t have a lot to go on to figure out exactly how well (or not) this will work when he needs to protect the rim or face more dominant power forwards.
"George likely won’t be asked to provide a ton in that area but he certainly can help if called upon. According to Partnow’s Rim Protection statistics, in his limited minutes last season, George’s interior defense saved an average of 2.7 points per 36 minutes. That’s well above the 1.94 mark for an average NBA wing.In a perfect world, George could be dynamic defending opposing bigs in the pick-and-roll. He’s quick enough to hedge aggressively or switch onto a small ball-handler. He’s also a turnover-creating machine and finished eighth in the league in steal percentage in 2013-14. However, there will also be a temptation to adjust defensive matchups when George is on the floor. He’s the Pacers best perimeter defender and in the past has almost always matched up with an opponent’s best wing scorer. The need to use him as a stopper for players like Jimmy Butler and LeBron James may be too great, forcing the Pacers to get creative with who defends the opposing power forward."
If this whole experiment works, Larry Bird will be consider a genius. If he fails its going to be very ugly. In Bird we trust.
Speaking of the best case, worst case scenarios, Ball Don’t Lie’s Kelly Dwyer sees the Pacers finishing 11th in the Eastern Conference. It seems much of his skepticism comes from all the questions around the team with all of the changes. Here’s his best and worse case scenarios.
"Best-case scenario:If George returns to the level that saw him working as a two-way sensation capable of challenging LeBron head-to-head; if Vogel can orchestrate a top-10 defense with Ellis and Jordan Hill playing major minutes; and if Turner and the youngsters can develop faster than expected to reinforce the bench; then, the Pacers might be in the mix with the Bucks, Celtics and Raptors for the East’s sixth through eighth seeds. Stuck in the middle again.If everything falls apart:If George requires a full season to return to an All-NBA level; if Hibbert’s absence as the last line of defense creates ripples of woes that extend to the perimeter; and if Budinger is being relied upon for major minutes in any capacity; then, maybe Indiana will have its first single-digit pick in the first round of an NBA Draft since 1989 (the immortal George McCloud)."
In Bird we trust. I think.
A big part of the defense still working, at least if it is anything like the scheme Frank Vogel used with Hibbert at center, is rim protection. Right now it looks like Ian Mahinmi is the starter to open the season but Larry Bird said this summer he expects Myles Turner to be a rotation player this year. Mahinmi provides plenty of defense but little offense whereas Turner is unproven, but looks to be a two-way threat if he can reach his potential. Hoops Habit’s Phil Watson sees this as one of the key stories for the Pacers this season.
"Mahinmi is a six-year NBA veteran who has never averaged more than 19 minutes a game in his career, but has been a very good defender—albeit against second units much of the time.He won’t give you much offense—Mahinmi has the effective shooting range of about 14 inches (OK, to be fair he only took 88.2 percent of his shots within 10 feet last season).That’s what makes Turner such an intriguing prospect. Underwhelming as a freshman at Texas last year, Turner turned a lot of heads at the Orlando Summer League in July, averaging 18.7 points a game and shooting 60.5 percent from the floor, while banging home two of the three 3-pointers he squeezed off.He also held his own on the glass (8.3 rebounds) and blocked 13 shots in three games (Roy who?)Everyone say it with me now: “Don’t get too excited about Summer League stats!”But Turner was a five-star prospect out of high school for a reason and if he can approach the level of play he showed he was capable of this summer, the Pacers might have gotten an absolute steal at the 11th overall pick."
Turner certainly impressed in Summer League (and Joe Young too.), but its hard to know if he’s going to be the underwhelming version of himself we saw in college or the shot blocking, 3 point shooting player we saw in Orlando this summer. He’s looked OK so far in the preseason but I don’t think he’s ready to start just yet.
So there you have it.
Many opinions and nuanced perspectives, but few see Indy making the postseason.