Will the Pacers Shoot More 3s Next Year?

The Indiana Pacers don’t take many 3-pointers. In the Frank Vogel era, they have never ranked in the top half of the NBA in terms of triples launched per game, and they ranked as low as 25th in 2013-14.

Such results suggest that the team probably should have been shooting more often from deep, particularly given the inefficient scoring of Roy Hibbert last year (and throughout his whole life) and David West’s inability to get easy buckets in the paint.

In Vogel’s defense, however, the team did shoot more 3s last year — 21.2 per game — than at any point in his tenure. It’s just that the whole league is shooting more 3s, so that increase didn’t really turn them into a high-volume long-range team.

This video from SB Nation does a great job explaining that jump, noting key developments in the history of the 3-point line, including the drafting of Reggie Miller, who was one of the first marquee players to truly embrace the arc.

In his end-of-year press conference, Larry Bird said the team will attempt to play faster and smaller in the years to come. He seems to like the pace-and-space offensive strategy popularized by the likes of Mike D’Antoni, Gregg Popovich, and Erik Spoelstra.

The risk in going that way is that the team will get away from its defensive identity — which is what propelled the Indiana Pacers to back-to-back Eastern Conference finals — and instead strive towards a style that Vogel may not be the right man to lead. If they try to revamp, they might just become another middling team that copycats the success of others without achieving the same results. Think of the Phoenix Suns, for example.

But it also seems clear that it is very hard to win in this league anymore without high-level shooting and a focus on getting players open for 3-point looks. So many teams use the line so well. And if you don’t, it’s simple math: matching 3s with 2s all game long will leave you trailing.

We will have to wait and see if the Pacers actually do play faster and shoot more from deep next year. But looking at who they draft and what types of players they go after in free agency should give some hints.

It seems as though this transition has been on Bird’s agenda for awhile now, and the poor results of this season have finally given him the mandate he needs to tell Vogel to switch. When Vogel was getting to the conference finals his way, it would have been tough for Bird to really force a change. He did seem to try, however, with personnel alone, signing shooters like Chris Copeland, C.J. Miles, and Damjan Rudez.

By always playing with two bigs on the floor and not embracing the stretch-four trend, those players were often underutilized.

Now, if the team does change lanes, we might see such shooters become even more valuable — especially since George Hill and Paul George are both capable shooters who should see their respectable 3-point percentages rise further if there is better spacing in the half court.

So if Bird takes another shooter in the draft this year, we will have a good inkling that what they say is going to come actually will follow through on their stated path.

With players like Chuck Person and Reggie Miller, the ABA-born Indiana Pacers were among the first teams to love the line. If Bird is to be believed, they may try to get back to their roots starting in 2015-16.