What We Learned About the Indiana Pacers: Week 11

The Indiana Pacers went 2-2 in Week 11, defeating the Utah Jazz in Utah and the Boston Celtics at home while falling to the white hot Golden State Warriors and the woeful Philadelphia 76ers on the road.

The lineup was once again shuffled and reshuffled due to injuries; George Hill missed more time, C.J. Miles suffered an eye injury, and Roy Hibbert sprained another ankle, while Ian Mahinmi returned from his torn plantar fascia to see his first game action in weeks.

Let’s take a look at what we saw in Week 11.

The Next Month Should Shape the Team’s Future

The Indiana Pacers are currently tied with the Charlotte Hornets for ninth place in the Eastern Conference. They sit two games behind the Brooklyn Nets at almost the halfway point of the season (39 games out of 82). The Nets have lost their last 5 games and are reeling, and the seventh-seeded Miami Heat are not playing much better, sporting an identical 16-21 record as the Nets.

The Pacers front office has to decide whether it wants to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, which is barely a month away (February 19th). The teams have a few attractive assets should they become sellers, and selling could spell the end for veterans like David West, Luis Scola, and one of the Rodney Stuckey/C.J. Miles duo, as well as bringing some interesting offers for young guys like Lavoy Allen and Solomon Hill.

Alternately, if the Pacers start taking care of teams they should (like the 76ers), they could vault into the playoff picture. Really, only the top four spots are locked, so Indiana could potentially finish as high as fifth or seventh, depending on how the overachieving Milwaukee Bucks and underachieving Cleveland Cavaliers hold together.

Meanwhile, eight of the Pacers’ next 11 opponents sit below .500, and it’s very possible the Pacers could be within sniffing distance of .500 themselves by the end of the run. A lot of that depends on the overall health of the team; getting George Hill and Ian Mahinmi back and healthy, and not losing guys like C.J. Miles/Rodney Stuckey/Roy Hibbert to minor injuries seemingly every game would go a long way towards stabilizing the team and helping them put together a run.

My gut feeling is the Pacers most likely stand pat, unless they trend strongly in one direction (a big winning or losing streak).

David West is Getting Back to the Line

David West had an interesting week, statistically speaking. In games one and two (against the Utah Jazz and the Golden State Warriors), West got to the line four times, shooting 4-of-4. In games three and four (against the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers), West shot 16 free throws, making 13 of them.

Getting to the line has been a season-long bugaboo for West, who’s shot only 43 free throws all season long, including the 16 in the last two games. West is a more effective player when he gets to the line, and has always been a good free throw shooter; the Pacers will need those freebies if they want to continue to push for .500 or better.

Solomon Hill’s Offense Is Coming Along

The book on Solomon Hill has been written and rewritten and rewritten this year. He’s gone from looking like he didn’t belong in the league in the preseason, to putting up 28 points against the Washington Wizards, to missing ferocious dunks with alarming regularity, on and on.

Hill’s latest evolution has been a positive one. He averaged 12 points per game last week, including scoring 21 points against the Golden State Warriors, and shot 16-of-19 from the line in the 4 games.

Hill’s game definitely still has warts. His 18% (2-of-11) shooting from behind the arc over four games certainly wasn’t helpful, and he was a brutal -24 on the week.

Overall, it seems he is still learning on the job, and he is doing good things while getting experience that can only serve him well.

Lavoy Allen Is Struggling in Extended Minutes

Lavoy Allen has been getting the bulk of the minutes at the backup center slot since Ian Mahinmi has been out. He showed very well for himself for a while: His PER is still 5th on the team, behind per-minute wunderkid Shayne Whittington, five-games-into-the-season George Hill, already-released A.J. Price, and David West.

But last week he had just one positive performance in four. He was good against the Warriors (12 points on 5-for-6 shooting) and floundered in the other three (shooting 1-for-8, 1-for-7, and 1-for-3).

Allen’s passing and offensive rebounding have remained positives for the Pacers, and he was a net positive in +/- for the week (+1), but his slump is coming at the wrong time, as the man who he replaced in the second unit (Mahinmi) has just returned to action.

Allen is likely playing for his spot in the rotation over the next few weeks as Ian gets his conditioning back; if Lavoy continues to struggle from the field, I would expect him to return to his spot as the fifth big man in a four-man front-court rotation.

The Indiana Pacers Week Ahead

Games: vs Minnesota Timberwolves (Tuesday, 1/13), vs Detroit Pistons (Friday, 1/16), at Charlotte Hornets (Saturday, 1/17)

Prediction: Pacers pitch a perfect week at 3-0, beating the Timberwolves and Pistons at home before traveling and eking out a needed win against the Hornets

Last Week’s Prediction Results: 2-3

Season Long Prediction Results: 20-16

What to Watch For: Luis Scola, finally playing like the player Larry Bird traded for last year… Ian Mahinmi, coming in hungry to earn his minutes back… Donald Sloan, continuing to impress and confound… the entire team continuing the trend of poor screen setting/screen usage (seriously, watch the bigs set screen and count the number of times they actually make contact)… C.J. Watson, continuing to struggle against ball pressure… David West and Luis Scola, occasionally shooting the three ball… Nifty interior passing when any two of Luis Scola/David West/Lavoy Allen share the floor… C.J. Miles, firing away for a team that needs his shooting… Donald Sloan, using a variety of hesitation dribbles and awkward release points around the basket to get around taller/faster opponents… Roy Hibbert, aggressively looking for his own shot… Ian Mahinmi, looking to make an impact in his return… George Hill, being monitored closely for a hopefully quick return… Rodney Stuckey, third on the team in 3-point shooting (behind George Hill and C.J. Watson), but third to last in 2-point shooting…