Passing the Buck: Indiana’s Guards vs Brandon Knight
By Ben Gibson
With the news of George Hill being out and C.J. Watson questionable, looking back at the Indiana Pacers’ November 4 matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks holds more value that it did just 24 hours ago.
In the Pacers early-season loss, Indiana’s starting guards performances were more than wanting. Donald Sloan and C.J. Miles combined for only 5 points on 2-for-15 shooting. At least when Rodney Stuckey was in the game he was average, though his offense was very inefficient. It wasn’t that they weren’t getting good shots, they just kept finding more or the rim than the net, even on open attempts. The guards’ offense was bad enough, but allowing Brandon Knight to score 21 points was worse.
When you watch Knight’s shots against the Pacers on Nov. 4, what seemed most notable was just how many times the Pacers guards simply weren’t in the picture. It looked to be more Knight vs Roy Hibbert than against any particular Pacers’ guard. Once Knight figured out taking on Roy Hibbert or any of Indiana’s forwards, he really got going as he.
Not that he wasn’t doing well near the rim, but he kept on finding a way to shake his defenders and get open shot and spread out Indiana’s defense. He was 6 of 9 from anywhere other than 8 feet of the basket with two of those being 3-pointers. That wasn’t a particularly flukish performance for Knight either as he’s averaged
18 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists a game
this season. His rebounds and assists have taken a small drop
. but he’s now close to averaging 20 points a game.
If it is C.J. Miles and Rodney Stucky tasked with slowing down Milwaukee’s starting point guard there are plenty or reasons to think this will be a little different that the Nov.4 game. For one, David West is back, and while he may not be directly covering Knight, there is the ripple of effect of the 17-foot Assassin being in the line-up. To keep it simple, West’s precense allows Hibbert to stay closer to the rim and won’t have him trying to play help defense nearly as much, plus West himself can step out in certain situations to at least put a hand in Knight’s face. He’s clearly a better defender the Scola and less likely to get caught sleeping and then running out to try to stop a corner 3-pointer like Scola was. Though Ian Mahinmi played in the Nov.4 game, LaVoy Allen has shown he is more than ready to step up in the Frenchman’s absence.
One of the other things Indiana has improved on since then is simply the chemistry of the team and the offense’s cohesion. Indiana was turning the ball over 18 times a game in their first few games but now has that number down to 13.6 a game since the start of December. There were a number of plays early in the season where players were throwing passes to where they thought their teammates might be. 33 games together tends to help a team cut down on those sort of turnovers. With those out of the way, Indiana has improved and practically turnover those extra turnovers into assists now. The the first 17 games Indiana had 18.9 assists and 14.8 assists per a game, but in the last 16 that is now 22.5 assists to 13.6 turnovers a game.
Less turnovers and better defense has Indiana posting a positive net rating in their last 10 games, a statistic they’ve flipped since the beginning of the season. Without trying to over-analyze, the Pacers have gotten better as players have returned from injury, and the entire lineup has gotten used to playing together more than they ever could have earlier in the season. That doesn’t mean Knight won’t be effective against Indiana tonight, but we’ve seen plenty of improvement from Indiana’s guards as well. Indiana’s goal should be to force Knight into less efficient scoring positions. He he’s going to hit his season average on points, at least make him work for it.
Stuckey is averaging over 10 points a game and isn’t relied on as much, while C.J. Miles shook some of his early season injuries and is averaging 16.4 points a game now.
The Pacers have made plenty of positive changes since Nov. 4, and there is plenty of reason to think that the offense and defensive performances of the starters to not be nearly as woeful. The Pacers entire team is playing better, and as long as the guards have at least a pulse in Milwaukee the Pacers should expect a win.
The Betting Line
The Bucks are actually a -2 point favorite, most likely because the game is in Milwaukee. Indiana should be able to get the win on the road. The over/under is 194.5. I’d take the under as well.