How the Pacers Play with Each Player On and Off the Floor
By Tim Donahue
Bubble charts are meant to show data in three dimensions, adding size to traditional x- and -y axes. In the chart below, the horizontal (x) axis is Pacer Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), while the vertical (y) Pacer Offensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The size is the minutes played. Each bubble represents to Defense-Offense (x-y) coordinates for the Pacers as team when a certain player is on the floor, covering games through December 30th. The further to the right on the x-axis, the better the Pacers’ Defensive efficiency. The further up the y-axis, the more points the Pacers score per 100 possessions.
The axes cross at the team averages. Bubbles above the horizontal (x) axis represent better than (team) average offense, while bubbles to the right of the vertical (y) axis show better than average defense. Up and to the right are good, down and to the left are bad.
Only C.J. Watson, Lavoy Allen, and Luis Scola are in the “good/good” quadrant, while David West, Rodney Stuckey, Donald Sloan, and Solomon Hill are all in the “bad/bad” quadrant. Solomon Hill is currently sporting the largest bubble, having played 300 more minutes than any of this teammates. The small, orange bubble in the upper left shows the currently small sample size for the recently-recovered George Hill.
There are a lot of factors that influence where these bubbles lie, and not all within the control of the individual player. The most obvious among these is the other players on the floor with them – both teammate and opponent. Situations can also matter – ahead, behind, close game, garbage time, etc. For these reasons, this is a long-view metric. It is best to look at it in large sample sizes and to watch it develop over time. For contrast, consider what this chart looked like through the first seven games (November 8th).
Of the rotation players in the “good/good” quadrant on November 8th, only Lavoy Allen remains. The Pacers remain above average offensively with Chris Copeland on the floor, but have become slightly below average defensively. Meanwhile, Rodney Stuckey has slid all the way down into the “bad/bad” quadrant, indicating that the small bubble on the far upper right hand of the November 8 chart was more reflective of small sample size than real performance. Meanwhile, the positive movement of the bubbles for Luis Scola and C.J. Miles fits with the relative arcs of their season.
The overarching bad news for the Pacers can be found where the bubbles of their starters sit. As noted earlier, West, Stuckey, and Solomon Hill are all in the “bad/bad” quadrant, while the Pacer offense has been at its absolute worse with Roy Hibbert on the floor. Teams can win with their bench, but only if the starters are competive. Indiana has tried nine different starting fives, and none of them have a cumulative positive +/- rating in their starts. Overall, the Pacers have been outscored by 143 points in 438 minutes when their starting unit(s) have been on the floor, complete.
Most disturbing is the presence of David West and Roy Hibbert – the team’s two best (healthy) players on paper – at the bottom of the December 30th chart. That is a very bad indicator for the Pacers hopes of being competitive and will get more discussion in the coming days.