Pacers vs Trail Blazers: Will the Pacers Die of Dysentery?
By Ben Gibson
Indiana Pacers (7-11) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (14-4)
The Indiana Pacers are on a road trip that so far has netted a pair of losses. First Indiana tried fording the river in Cleveland and caught dysentery. No one died, but the trail didn’t get easier as they headed out to Arizona, which seems to be a terrible detour on the Oregon Trail. After picking up another loss and thankfully not breaking any wagon wheels, they have finally made their way up to Oregon for the second to last leg of this current road trip.
So what does Indiana face when they try to ford another river in Portland? In the front court it is Wesley Matthews and Damian Lillard, a duo averaging nearly 40 points a game. Lillard has an average of 6.8 assists a game, so it isn’t like he’s only going to out score you to beat you as he did to the tune of 26 points last December against Indiana, also getting 10 of those from the foul line. No, he’ll find several different ways to frustrate his opponents. On the interior Indiana will find Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez to contend with so the Pacers should be very thankful to have both Roy Hibbert and David West back to contend with the talent and size there. Last time in Portland we saw how Aldridge’s 11 of 19 shooting, mostly from mid-range, can challenge the weakness of Indiana’s defense. If he can score 28 like he did that go-around, that can spell trouble for Indiana, a team that needed career-night from Paul George last time around to keep it close.
The last time these two met in Portland,
despite 43 points by George. PG hit seven 3-pointers in the game and nearly forced us to rename this very blog.
Who to watch on the Trail Blazers:
Damian Lillard scored 26 points against Indiana last time thanks to his ability to draw fouls. He only shot 7 of 17 and struggled to score in the paint. But thanks to 10 shots from the foul line, he was able to turn in a solid night. He’ll be wanting to do the same this time around as well.
Who to watch on the Pacers: David West has to pick up his defense compared to the last time Indiana played in Portland. He allowed LMA to score too much and forced Hibbert out to help too often. If Hibbert isn’t guarding the rim and busy helping West, Matthews and Lillard will take advantage of the extra room.
The Big Question
Will LMA take advantage of the Pacers defense again, and in particular David West? LaMarcus Alridge’s mid-range game can exploit one of the weaknesses of the Pacers defense. Coach Frank Vogel has Indiana set up to stop 3-pointers and easy baskets at the rim while allowing the mid-range to be a more open area. Last time around LMA avoided taking on Hibbert for the most part, but took advantage of David West as he made 7 of 10 baskets when he was guarded by the power forward. Now there is a myth that LMA is ultra-efficient mid-range shooter. He isn’t. Or maybe it should be pointed out that a guy that shoots as well Aldridge still isn’t going to make the mid-range game the efficient option available. If you look in the graph below, the green areas are where is FG% is overlaid on PPP. He still may be shooting much better than the league average, but it is still hard for anybody to be more efficient from there than from other areas on the court.
All that said he can still kill you from there if he’s shooting like he did against David West last year. You might want to make sure you have your hand in the face of a 41.5% mid-range shooter. You may notice he can finish really damn well at the rim. He’s extremely talented and much more than merely a mid-range player despite that seems to be the focus of all LMA discussions.
Betting Line
The Trail Blazers are a -9 home favorite with a over/under of 195.5. I thank we’ll see Portland win, but I’m not as sure about the team’s making it to 195.5.