Indiana Pacers (1-4) vs Boston Celtics (1-3)
The Indiana Pacers proved that they might actually be able to win a few games when they get healthy but the loss against Washington in overtime could be a tipping point in one of two directions until the roster returns to normal. We saw plenty of emotion in the loss as the Pacers looked genuinely depressed about coming up short. This could either be because they feel like they can win these games and their frustrated with their play, or the other option might be they realized they don’t have enough bodies to compete against playoff teams right now, even when they play well. Obviously this is all speculation as I try to take Bill Simmons’ position as the Body Language Doctor.
Last year the Pacers beat the Celtics in all four meetings, but this year’s team has a healthy Rajon Rondo and Indiana certainly isn’t what it was then. So what should we expect? I’d like that Indiana is going to build on the frustration created the Washington loss and turn it into something good, finding the positives and working to make them a bigger part of their plan. We’ll see if Donald Sloan’s 31 point game was purely an anomaly or maybe a step towards him becoming a better player. Chris Copeland showed a very J.R. Smith like mentality on offense and that can cut both ways. He’s one of the few Pacers players willing to take shots anytime, anywhere, but he can’t have more shots than points like he did against the Wizards.
The Celtics got off to a fast start against the Toronto Raptors with 35 points in the opening quarter, but the North would win 110-107. The Celtcs starters, with the exception or Rondo, are averaging 10+ points each with Jeff Green (22.3 ppg) and Avery Bradly (17.3 ppg) leading the way. The team’s defense has played poorly though, offsetting an 106.2 offensive rating with a defensive one of 107.6. Indiana has had the same issue of giving up too many points, but the difference between the two teams is pace. The Celtics are the third fasted team in the league in that regard while the Pacers are the 5th slowest. Whichever team controls the pace and takes the other out of its comfort area has the best chance to win the game.
Who to watch on the Celtics: Rookie guard Marcus Smart has seen plenty of action so far this season and been effective on both ends of the floor. When Smart is in the game, the Celtics have played better defense while he’s been averaging 11 points a game and been part of a strong Celtics offense. Keep an eye on how he does against the depleted guards of Indiana. Maybe A.J. Price can help? (Update: Indy Star confirms he will suit up.)
Who to watch on the Pacers: Donald Sloan had 31 points and 7 assists in Pacers last game, but can he come anywhere close to that again? He has been a double-digit scorer in all but one game and I wouldn’t be surprised if he carried a little momentum from that performance and play well tonight.
The Big Question
Who is going to control the pace? Boston is one of the faster teams in the NBA while Indiana is one of the slowest. If Hibbert can protect the basket well and gets any help the Pacers can control the game, but if the offense struggles and the Pacers have around their season average of 18.4 turnovers per game, Boston may be running wild on Indiana. If Indiana can keep it slow and not allow the Celtics offense to get running, then the game should swing in their favor.
Betting Line
Boston is a -5 favorite going into tonight’s game with the over/under at 192.5. I think the line is small enough to expect the Celtics to cover at home, but I’d take the over on points as don’t see either defense playing that well.
One Random Thing
This is the first time the Pacers and Celtics have met this year and will be Evan Turner’s first game against his former team. I don’t expect any fireworks, but maybe somebody holds a grudge.